NFL week 1 is finally here, so it is time to have fun and of course, make some money! If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
Today, these three games fit both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns:
Whil 61% of the public money is on the Steelers, 51% of the sharp money is on the Browns. On top of that, the line has dropped dramatically from 5.5 to 3.5 in most books. You can call it the “Hard Knocks” or “Le’Veon Bell” effect, but the sharps definitely took the Browns and the points early. There is also going to be terrible weather conditions in Cleveland today (20mph+ winds), so just another thing to consider.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-1)
The Titans are currently getting 59% of the public support, but 64% of the money is actually on the Dolphins. The line has also moved a whole two points in the opposite direction (RLM), from the Titans -1 to the Dolphins -1 in most books. The Wiseguys definitely are on the ‘Fins in this matchup.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7)
This line opened at 8.5/ 8 in most books, but is now down to the Packers -7 in most books. While the public is overwhelmingly (66%) on the Packers, the sharp money has come in on the Bears in a way big (70%), causing the line move. While everyone is loving Aaron Rodgers vs. an unknown Bears team, Vegas and the oddsmakers alike will need the Bears tonight, as a ton of spread bets, moneyline parlays and teasers are tied to the Packers.
Good luck, and may the odds be forever in your favor!