Welcome back for week 2 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 3-0. Today, these two games fit both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5):
While 60% of the public bets are on the Chiefs, 60% of the “sharp” money is on the Steelers. On top of that, the line has moved from -4, to -4.5 in most books (RLM). The Wiseguys are expecting the Chiefs to have a let down after their big road win vs. the Chargers, and for the Steelers to bounce back at home.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (+7.5):
The Chargers are the heaviest public bet this weekend (79%), but the sharps are loving the Bills. The line has dropped from 9 to 7.5 (RLM) in most books. Most sharps are taking into consideration the West to East travel for the Chargers, and the fact that the Bills are closer to the Chargers than most people think when it comes to the Elo ratings and Vegas Power rankings (to name a few). QBs making their first debut (Josh Allen) also usually tend to cover in their first game, i.e. Sam Darnold last weekend. The Bills looked horrendous last weekend, so this play will require a lot of stones to lay some real money on.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)
The public is liking the Panthers and the points in this one at a 55% rate, but the sharp money is on the Falcons (62%). The line has also steadily risen from 5.5 to 6 in most books, indicating some reverse line movement in this one. The “Pros” are on the Falcons.