Welcome back for week 4 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 2-0 (6-2 YTD). Today, these two games fit both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
Houston Texans (-1) at Indianapolis Colts
The public is liking the Colts in this one at a 59% clip, but the sharp money is on the Texans (71%). The line has jumped from Colts -1 to Texans -1 in most books, indicating huge RLM. The “Sharps” took the Texans early in this one.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)
This is a classic Joes vs. Pros/ RLM game. The public sees Russell Wilson only needing to win by a FG against a rookie QB, so of course they are pounding the Seahawks. Currently 65% of the public is laying the points with the short road favorites. However, the Cardinals are receiving 55% of the “Wiseguy” money. On top of that, the line has gone from Seattle -4 to -3 in most books (RLM). The sharps were all over the Cards at +4.