The 10 Least Valuable Players in Fantasy Football So Far
By Jason Lisk
Who have been the biggest drains on teams through four weeks in Fantasy Football? To determine this, I used win probability and win shares, and then adjusted for the expectation for that player so far, based on draft position and the available points of players taken near them. By this method, then, there is an opportunity cost for failure, and missing early is more costly than if a 10th round pick doesn’t provide any value above replacement in your lineup.
I used FanDuel (half PPR) scoring, and used the following to determine win shares and points added. I took only the top 18 QB, top 36 RB, top 45 WR, and top 18 TE in average starting percentage each week (because I’m not penalizing players for being on your bench who were not expected to produce, nor am I giving them credit when they probably weren’t in starting lineups). I then used a weekly baseline of the 18th QB, 36th RB, 45th WR, and 18th TE in points scored to calculate points above or below baseline. Then I converted the total surplus points to wins (24 so far in a 12-team league). 85 Surplus points is equal to one win.
I also then took all those win values and determined the expected wins by draft position. Here are my estimates for the least valuable players in Fantasy Football over four weeks (Note: this is not predictive, as many of these are due to injury or missing games, and they can rebound).
#1 LE’VEON BELL (-0.49 draft-adjusted win shares)
It shouldn’t surprise you that Le'Veon Bell, who still has not reported to the Steelers, is the least valuable player so far. That’s because he was on average being selected with the 2nd overall pick in fantasy drafts. That’s a lot of opportunity forfeited when players like Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, and Antonio Brown went right after.
Bell can make up some of that value when he returns, but it’s doubtful he proves to be worth more than a mid-2nd round pick if he puts up his usual production for half a season.
My estimate is that teams with Bell are about a half-win below .500 on average, depending on how they drafted the rest of the way, based on forfeiting the 2nd overall pick in the draft through four weeks of play.
#2 LEONARD FOURNETTE (-0.43 draft-adjusted win shares)
Leonard Fournette hasn’t been able to stay healthy so far this year, twice exiting games with a hamstring injury. That means two starts where a lot of owners put him in the lineup and then got burned, in addition to the weeks where he has been out (and thus able to be replaced in the lineup.)
Add in that he was a late first round pick on average, and the Fournette owners have missed out on a lot of points compared to Gordon, Hopkins, Hunt, and Julio.
#3 LARRY FITZGERALD (-0.34 draft-adjusted win shares)
Larry Fitzgerald is the first player to make this list without missing games. At age 34 in 2017, he defied Father Time and put up a top 15 fantasy season, but this year has taken a big turn. He’s just fallen off a cliff so far in 2018 that badly, as the Arizona offense has been dreadful. He’s been well below replacement value each of the last three games.
Fitzgerald has 15 catches for 141 yards and no touchdowns so far this year. He’s also a big enough name to continue to get put in starting lineups (though that may be changing this week). Add in that he was taken just ahead of Juju Smith-Schuster and Brandin Cooks near the start of the 4th round in many drafts, and his owners are feeling a lot of pain. There’s a decent chance he tops this list at season’s end.
#4 LESEAN MCCOY (-0.32 draft-adjusted win shares)
There’s been a dark cloud over LeSean McCoy entering this season, with accusations of abuse and being involved in a break-in against an ex-girlfriend.
He was also a player who slipped down draft boards (but still only to the mid-3rd round) over concerns with the 30-year old starting to slow down, and major concerns over the state of the Buffalo Bills offense in a season where Nathan Peterman was named the opening day starter.
So far, those who red-flagged McCoy have been correct, as he’s managed only 85 total rushing yards in 3 games played, and his prospects for a bounce-back season look grim in that offense.
#5 DALVIN COOK (-0.31 draft-adjusted win shares)
Dalvin Cook was coming back from a knee injury, but fantasy owners were still pretty optimistic, because he was going early 2nd round, ahead of guys like Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, and lots of top receivers.
So far, he’s still battled injuries, and through three games played, is only averaging 12 rush attempts per game, and has yet to break 100 yards total (2.7 yards per carry) and hasn’t scored.
#6 DEVONTA FREEMAN (-0.30 draft-adjusted win shares)
Devonta Freeman was coming off a disappointing 2017, but was still being drafted early in the 2nd round, just like Cook. He got hurt in the season opener and is just now targeted to return this week, where he can begin to take his name off this list.
#7 DERRICK HENRY (-0.29 draft-adjusted win shares)
Derrick Henry is the 2nd least valuable running back, setting aside draft position. Other backs on this list went earlier than him and had larger opportunity costs, but Henry has been an abject disappointment so far in 2018. And it’s not like he was cheap, as he was still a late 3rd round pick in many drafts.
He contributes nothing as a receiver, and despite having 54 rush attempts so far, is averaging only 3 yards per attempt and has not scored. He’s been below the Running Back baseline of RB36 every single week so far and you have to be a brave, or gambling soul, to bank on him getting a big touchdown to get you any value.
#8 DOUG BALDWIN (-0.29 draft-adjusted win shares)
Doug Baldwin had a knee injury in the preseason, and then got hurt again in the season opener, costing many owners that week. He’s been reliable for several years and that was why he was going late 3rd round. He’s back now and should be able to remove himself from this list if he can stay healthy going forward, working as Russell Wilson’s top option.
#9 CHRIS HOGAN (-0.23 draft-adjusted win shares)
Chris Hogan was expected to carry the receiving mantle in New England with Julian Edelman’s early suspension and Brandin Cooks being traded. It has not gone well.
Hogan has only 11 catches and 143 yards through five games and is far less likely to bounce back now that Edelman has returned and Josh Gordon is working his way into the rotation.
Just as costly, Hogan was being drafted by the end of the 5th round, ahead of many productive receivers like Corey Davis and Emmanuel Sanders, and plenty of backs who look to have promise as the season continues.
#10 PEYTON BARBER (-0.21 draft-adjusted win shares)
Peyton Barber has been the least valuable running back over the first four weeks in terms of points under baseline, but is only down here because he was drafted much later.
Barber had an opportunity but has not taken advantage of it, averaging 3.0 yards a carry on 50 rushes, with most coming in the first three weeks, while only adding two catches in a high-powered passing attack for Tampa to open the year.
Dishonorable Mention: Rex Burkhead (-0.21, now on IR), Marquise Goodwin (-0.20), David Johnson (-0.20), Keenan Allen (-0.20), Odell Beckham (-0.19), Tyrod Taylor (-0.19), Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder (-0.18)