Welcome back for week 6 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 1-1 (9-3 YTD). Today, just one game fits both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
This is a classic Joes vs. Pros/ RLM game. The public sees the best team in the NFL only needing to win by a TD vs. an inconsistent Broncos team, so of course they are pounding the Rams. Currently 60% of the public is on the road team, and with this being an afternoon game, look for that number to go up. However, the Broncos are receiving 60% of the “Wiseguy” money. On top of that, the line has gone from Rams -7 to -6.5 in most books (RLM). The sharps are on the Broncos in this one. They are a good home team, and the weather is going to be another factor that is in Denver’s favor:
Another game to keep an eye on is Kansas City at New England. The public is loving the red-hot Chiefs, while the “Wiseguy” money seems to be on the Pats. It is still early right now, but if the game ends up fitting the criteria, I will add it in closer to kickoff.