Welcome back for week 9 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 1-0 (11-4 YTD). Today, just one game fits both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-1):
The public is all over the Texans in this game (66%), but the “pro” money is on the Broncos (55%). The line has also moved from a pick ’em to Broncos -1, indicating reverse line movement on the Broncos. The “sharps” are on the Broncos today, are you?
*** Another game to keep an eye on is the Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots. The Pack are close to fitting the system, but it still early in the day. I will update the post closer to kick-off if the Packers end up being a play.