Predicting the 2019 NCAA Tournament Field
By Jason Lisk
College basketball gets underway tonight, including big matchups between Kansas and Michigan State, and Duke versus Kentucky. It culminates for most of us in March when we arrive at Selection Sunday and embark upon Madness. We’ll take on the foolhardy task of trying to predict what that will look like.
Last year’s version of predicting the field got 40 of the 68 participants right in the pre-season. That broke down as 13 of the top 16 teams projected (USC, Notre Dame, and Louisville were the earliest predictions that flopped) making the field, with all 13 that made it being seeded in the top 6 seed lines. 18 of the 30 remaining at-large quality picks made it (60%), while 9 of the 22 one-bid selections for seeds 12 to 16 made it (41%). That may not sound great, but with the randomness of Conference Tourney madness, it’s way better than just pulling names out of a hat.
Here’s who we are going with for March of 2019:
#1 Seeds: Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, Kentucky
Kansas is the preseason No. 1 team, and has been a No. 1 seed more often than not in recent years. With Bill Self’s deepest and most talented team in years, there is every reason to expect Kansas to be on the No. 1 line again this year. The roster has undergone a major overhaul, and the Jayhawks are going to be led by a freshman point guard. But that point guard, Quentin Grimes, is a projected lottery pick, and he’ll have a lot of help from a frontcourt of Udoka Azubuike and Memphis transfer Dedric Lawson, a preseason All-Big 12 pick.
Duke brings an already legendary recruiting class into this season, headlined by Zion Williamson, who might not even be the best guy in Duke’s freshman class. Duke has a ton of talent, but coincidentally enough, 3-point shooting is a weak spot for most of those players. Against all but the best of the best, though, that weakness isn’t going to matter much.
Gonzaga is here because rising junior forwards Rui Hachimura and Killian Tillie opted to return to school, and then — in July — coveted North Dakota grad transfer Geno Crandall signed with the Zags. They have one of country’s best frontcourts, plus PG Josh Perkins, who has started 108 games. They also have the non-conference schedule to make noise, playing in Maui where they could meet Duke, and also facing Washington, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Creighton.
As for Kentucky, there are seven five-star recruits and three four-star recruits on this Wildcats roster, which yet again seems to be setting a new standard for depth at UK. Getting P.J. Washington back after an NBA flirtation was a huge bonus, and helps round out a roster with a robust mix of freshman talent and veteran leadership.
#2 Seeds: North Carolina, Tennessee, Villanova, Michigan State
It’s Luke Maye’s team now at North Carolina, which lost Joel Berry and Theo Pinson, but signed three touted freshmen and should be one of the best shooting teams in the ACC. Maye averaged 17 and 10 last year, but Roy Williams would like to give him a little more help inside than he had last year.
Tennessee returns last year’s SEC Player of the Year in Grant Williams. The Volunteers have to get a shaky point guard situation figured out, and they’ll need to be extra good on defense, because their offense relies so much on Williams and Admiral Schofield.
Villanova lost the top four scorers off the national championship roster. Phil Booth and Eric Paschall will have to take a larger scoring role this year. But we’ve seen Jay Wright build a system in a program, so bet against them being in the mix this year at your own risk.
Michigan State lost Myles Bridges, but Nick Ward came back after testing the waters. This team doesn’t have as much talent as most MSU teams, but enter the season as the conference favorite in the Big Ten and will continue to improve throughout the year.
#3 Seeds: Kansas State, West Virginia, Virginia, Oregon
Kansas State returns pretty much everyone from last year’s Elite Eight run, and Dean Wade should be healthy. Expectations will be high in the Little Apple.
West Virginia lost Jevon Carter but still has Sagaba Konate to lead an athletic frontline. Besides, Bob Huggins has made the tournament 10 times in 12 years in Morgantown.
Virginia was embarrassed by becoming the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 seed, but doubt Tony Bennett before March at your own peril. They’ve been a Top 5 seed each of the last five years, and De’Andre Hunter and Kyle Guy should have them in ACC contention all year.
Oregon had a rebuilding year last season after going to the Final Four two years ago. Expect a bounce back with a talented freshman class that includes Bol Bol, to go with the core that got experience last season, including leading scorer Payton Pritchard.
#4 Seeds: Nevada, Florida State, Washington, Syracuse
First came the commitment of McDonald’s All-American Jordan Brown, the highest-rated recruit in program history. Then, Jordan Caroline announced he was withdrawing from the NBA Draft to return for his senior season. Days later, an even bigger announcement: Twins Cody and Caleb Martin would also be returning to the Wolf Pack. We expect the very experienced and talented group to live up to expectations. So why do we have Caleb Martin and company on the 4-seed line? Well, no one said life was fair, and the selection committee tends to seed on big wins. Nevada likely has to be undefeated or have one loss to be on the top two lines. Unlike Gonzaga, they don’t have matchups against Tennessee and North Carolina, so we’ll slot them here. They can still do damage from the #4 line come March.
Hamilton’s biggest wish is to get improvement out of his two returning post players: 7’4″ Christ Koumadje and 6’10” Mfiondu Kabengele. Kabengele, who has good athleticism and a soft shooting touch, looks poised for a breakout year after averaging 7.2 points off the bench as a freshman. Koumadje isn’t much of a scoring threat, but his staggering length has always made him a huge defensive force. Adding much-needed weight should help him contribute more.
The best offseason news for the Huskies was 6’8″ post player Noah Dickerson’s decision to pull out of the NBA Draft and return for a final season. A close second was 7’0″ recruit Bryan Penn-Johnson signing a letter of intent in the spring. One’s a returning All-Pac-12 player and 15.5-point scorer, the other a spindly four-star recruit who can run the floor.
Boeheim returns the starting frontcourt of sophomore forwards Oshae Brissett and Marek Dolezaj, 6’8″ and 6’10” respectively, plus 7’2″ center Paschal Chukwu. Brissett’s average of 14.9 points per game was the fifth highest ever for a Syracuse freshman, and his 8.8 rebounds ranked behind only Carmelo Anthony. Boeheim says Brissett is only going to get better as he matures.
Go to the next page to see the full predictions for at-large slots by conference.
BIG 12 (7): Kansas, West Virginia, Kansas State, Texas, Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech
The Big 12 is loaded and again expected to get the highest percentage of its teams to the Dance. In addition to the three top-seeded teams, we expect four others to make it, with Iowa State returning after a rebuilding year.
Baylor (Scott Drew) and Oklahoma (Lon Kruger) both have coaches with a long history of NCAA Tournament appearances, but don’t appear to have the talent to hang in a Big 12 conference where even Texas Tech and TCU are good. Oklahoma State returns just two starters from a 21-15 team and was picked last in the preseason conference poll. But all of these teams are capable if things break right.
ACC (9): Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Miami, Clemson, NC State
As you might have heard, Louisville is in a bit of a rebuilding mode. Notre Dame is too. And Boston College, Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech haven’t been good for at least four years. NC State gets the nod at the bubble, and recent tournament stalwarts like Miami, Virginia Tech and Clemson join the field.
BIG TEN (7): Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa
The Big Ten had a down year last season, at least by how the committee seeded things. Expect a bounce-back for some programs with recent success, like Wisconsin and Indiana, and Nebraska would benefit by having the conference do well early, because they were excluded last year despite a really good conference record.
Maryland and Ohio State have the best shot out of the rest of the league. Northwestern made the NCAA Tournament two years ago, but is picked last in the league this year. Minnesota is also a team that disappointed a year ago and will look to rebound with Richard Pitino.
SEC (7): Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, Mississippi State, Florida, Alabama, LSU
The SEC has a muddled picture, but should be deep again. Auburn finished poorly but should still be in the mix, Mississippi State has elevated expectations after being on the wrong side of the bubble a year ago, and Florida, Alabama, and LSU will look to make runs with some young players.
Vanderbilt has a great shot to get it thanks a recruiting class with two top 15 players and another top 100 guy. Texas A&M might have a chance, too, but it lost its best player, Tyler Davis. Missouri also lost Jontay Porter to a knee injury or they would be projected in the field, and Arkansas and South Carolina should be in the bubble mix. We might get the identity of the entrants wrong on a few of these projections, but feel pretty confident the league will get about half its members in the field.
BIG EAST (5): Villanova, Xavier, Providence, St. John’s, Marquette
There are a lot of question marks throughout the Big East this year. Villanova is reloading, Xavier is replacing Chris Mack and several key veterans. Marquette has the best returning scorer in Markus Howard.
Creighton lost its best players in Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas, and if the Blue Jays get some big contributions from some rising sophomores, they could get right back in. Butler is also on the outside looking in, but could again surprise. On the flip side, is this the year St. John’s turns the corner under Chris Mullin? He’s yet to reach the tournament but we will project a team that returns a lot of experience from a young squad a year ago to get it done.
PAC-12 (5): Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, USC
The Pac-12 had a down year last year, and has lots of question marks but also potential upside this year, as the top teams are largely based on young talent coming in. Arizona and Colorado could also make an NCAA Tournament run, but the Wildcats lost their entire starting five from last year. The Buffaloes could get a a lot of improvement from what was the youngest team in the Pac-12 last year. We are going with Arizona State and USC in the final slots, and have Arizona out.
AMERICAN (2): Cincinnati, Houston
It feels weird not to have Wichita State in, but this feels like a rebuilding year and would be a stellar coaching job by Gregg Marshall. UCF seems like it is perennially on the edge recently, while SMU could also get in the tournament at the bubble. Excitement is high in Memphis over new coach Penny Hardaway. But games at LSU and at home against Tennessee are the biggest tests in the nonconference season, so the Tigers might not have much of a resume.
MOUNTAIN WEST (2): Nevada, San Diego State
San Diego State will have an opportunity to put together an at-large resumé, if they can beat Nevada at home or add a win in the loaded Maui field (they open against Duke, but could get either Xavier or Auburn next). We’ll project them to do just enough and join the Wolfpack, who should be a high seed.
WEST COAST (1): Gonzaga
St. Marys is Gonzaga’s biggest competition in this league, and BYU got a first-place vote in the preseason conference poll. One or both of them will need to win at Gonzaga to make this happen.
MO VALLEY (1): Loyola-Chicago
Loyola-Chicago comes off their great Cinderella run to the Final Four … and must scrape by on the razor-thin margins of adding some wins when most big name programs don’t want to face them. They really only get two chances: a big game against Nevada and a trip to play Maryland in Baltimore. The Ramblers also face challenges from Illinois State and Southern Illinois, who could easily take the auto bid.
And finally, the Cinderellas, our projections for the one-bid leagues. Here are the final 18 automatic slot projections.
ATLANTIC 10: St. Louis
MID-AMERICAN: Buffalo
CONFERENCE USA: Western Kentucky
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
BIG SKY: Montana
CAA: Northeastern
IVY LEAGUE: Harvard
SUN BELT: Georgia State
SOUTHERN: UNC-Greensboro
MAAC: Rider
BIG WEST: UC-Irvine
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F. Austin
HORIZON: Northern Kentucky
WAC: Grand Canyon
AMERICA EAST: Vermont
ATLANTIC SUN: Lipscomb
BIG SOUTH: Winthrop
NORTHEAST: Wagner
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SWAC: Texas Southern
MEAC: Norfolk State