Welcome back for week 10 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 0-1 (11-5 YTD) due to Vance Joseph’s incompetency. Today, just one game fits both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
The public is all over the Patriots in this game (80%), but the “sharps” are on the Titans (55%) today, gulp. The line has also moved from Pats -7 to -6.5/ 6 in most books indicating reverse line movement on Tennessee. Vegas is going to need the Titans badly, as the Pats will be attached to every parlay and teaser out there. Vegas took a bloodbath last weekend, will it turn this weekend?