Welcome back for week 11 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 1-0 (12-5 YTD) due to the Titans rolling the Patriots. Today, just one game fits both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) at New Orleans Saints
The public is all over the Saints in this game (65%), and understandably so, as they have been a cover machine. But, the “pro” money has come in hard on the Eagles (62%) all weekend long. The line has also moved from Saints -9 to -7.5/7 in most books, indicating reverse line movement on the Eagles. There is definitely recency bias on the Eagles as they looked terrible in that loss to the Cowboys last weekend, but sharps are finding value in this line…