Welcome back for week 14 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 0-1 (14-7 YTD), as the Niners got rolled by the Seahawks. Today, two games fit both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
Indianapolis Colts (+4) at Houston Texans
The public is all over the Texans in this game (60%), and understandably so, as they’ve been red hot. But, the “Pro” money has come in on the Colts (59%), driving this line down from Texans -4.5 to 4. This indicates reverse line movement on the Colts.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers +4
The public is loving the Broncos in this game at a 67% clip, but the sharps have come in big on the 49ers (60%). This line has been pushed down from Broncos -5.5 to 3.5/4 in most books, indicating huge reverse line movement on the Niners.
I also spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Risk Management at CG Technology, who had the following to say about today’s games. His feedback also confirms the Niners as a sharp play.
Biggest needs: Jets, Ravens, Bengals, and Eagles
Sharp vs. Public:
Bucs (+10) vs. Saints
Bears (+3) vs. Rams
49ers (+4) vs. Broncos