The Minnesota Vikings Broke Out on Offense, But Playoff Odds Did Not Improve

The Minnesota Vikings fired their offensive coordinator, and the team responded for one week with a huge victory. You would think that such a big win would improve the Vikings’ chances of making the postseason–where they were already in position to capture the sixth seed–but it did not really improve their chances.

That’s because Washington’s win over Jacksonville, coupled with the biggest result of the night, the Eagles over Rams, altered things.

Here’s why that result was big:

It made it far more likely that Philadelphia or Washington get to 9 wins, since they play each other in Week 17. Philadelphia hosts Houston and Washington has to go pull another big road upset at Tennessee. If either of those things happen, at least one of those teams is playing for 9 wins.

Thus, the scenarios where Minnesota could still get the wildcard at 8-7-1 took a big hit. They can still get in with that record, but are more likely to need to finish 9-6-1 than they were a week ago.

The Eagles’ victory also has an impact on the Vikings’ direct chances because of the incentives it creates for the Bears. Chicago is now within a game of the Rams with the tiebreaker. While it is highly likely the Rams win out, the Bears are less likely to rest starters in Week 17 if they have a mathematical chance of getting a bye. (It’s also very likely that game is scheduled before the Rams’ last game so the Bears won’t know if a win matters or not). My estimate from last week of 65% for Minnesota to make the playoffs included accounting for the odds the Bears rested starters in Week 17.

Add it all together, and I still have Minnesota at about the same odds as a week ago because of the impact of those events. Here is how I have the playoff odds for the teams that have not clinched yet in the NFC:

SEATTLE – 97%

DALLAS – 90%

MINNESOTA – 65%

PHILADELPHIA – 32%

WASHINGTON – 11%

CAROLINA – 5%