NFC Playoff Team Historical Comparisons: Saints are Heavy Favorites, While There are Lots of Pretenders

Which NFC teams could challenge the New Orleans Saints for supremacy? Which one bear a striking resemblance to pretenders from the past? To answer this, I whipped up a similarity score to all playoff teams since 1990, when the NFL adopted the six-team playoff structure in each conference. This time, though, I am using only games through Week 16, since several top contenders have historically rested starters in the final week.

There have been 336 playoff teams over that span, and I am looking at the Top 15 most similar to each NFC playoff hopeful. That represents the 5% of playoff teams most similar.

Here are the categories I used to set this up:

Points scored, adjusted to league average
Points allowed, adjusted to league average
Point differential
Winning percentage
net passing yards per play on offense, adjusted to league average
net passing yards per play on defense, adjusted to league average
rushing yards per carry on offense, adjusted to league average
rushing yards per carry on defense, adjusted to league average
Pass to run ratio on offense, adjusted to league average
Pass to run ratio faced on defense, adjusted to league average

By looking not only at record and points, but also the efficiency stats and passing identity categories, we get a good sense of teams that were most similar. The Rams and Bears are pretty close in record and point differential, but the way they do it is vastly different, with the Rams having the explosive offense and the Bears the much better defensive numbers.

So let’s get to our teams, starting with the two still vying for the last playoff spot.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

So I’ve made these charts showing the 15 most similar teams, and a color-coded chart of how they did in each round. Blue is for bye week, green is for a win and red is for a loss.

The Eagles haven’t made the playoffs and are a bit of a longshot, needing both a win this week and a Vikings loss. If they do make it though … there’s lots of red.

The 1996 Jacksonville Jaguars, who stunned a Denver Broncos team that would go on to win the next two Super Bowls, are the only similar team to these Eagles to reach the Conference Championship Game. There will be plenty of talk of Nick Foles magic if the Eagles return to the postseason, but they don’t bear any resemblance to the teams that have made runs, other than those Jags. Let’s just look at the facts: Philadelphia has a negative point differential, and while they have a decent passing game, they are near the bottom of the league in rush offense and defense numbers, and have below average pass defense efficiency stats.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

If the Eagles miss out, it will be because the Vikings are in. Surprisingly, there comparable teams don’t fare much better.

I say surprisingly, because the Vikings are in the top 8 in both pass and rush defense efficiency. But they are about average as a passing team this year, and are a poor rush offense, both in efficiency and volume. If you think the late-season firing of OC John DeFilippo changed things for this team, then you might tend to think these numbers are meaningless.

The 2008 Eagles–who incidentally also finished 9-6-1 in the regular season when Donovan McNabb learned that there could be ties in the NFL–are the only one to reach a Conference Championship Game.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Seattle Seahawks have been rolling, winning 5 of their last 6 to secure a wildcard spot. The only similar team to make a run, though, was one who didn’t have to play on Wildcard weekend, the 2001 Patriots.

The Seahawks’ comparables are teams with a heavy run identity but decent passing efficiency. You might be surprised to learn that the Seahawks don’t rate very highly on defense, 25th in net yards per pass allowed, and dead last in yards per carry allowed. Seattle does have a +14 turnover margin and Russell Wilson has carried the offense. We’ll see if that can continue in the postseason. More often the formula this Seattle team is using has not resulted in success in January.

DALLAS COWBOYS

Dallas’ defense feels like it should make them a contender, but the results of similar teams show differently. Dallas has a stiff run defense, and ranks 4th in points allowed. They also rank far down in pass efficiency while also being a lower volume passing attack.

Teams like Dallas have gotten to host a majority of their wildcard games, but have a losing record in that round. Only two reach a conference championship game and none advanced to the Super Bowl.

CHICAGO BEARS

About half of the Chicago Bears’ comps earned a bye, as they will be hoping to do this week if the Rams falter. Their comps went only 4-4 in the Wildcard Round, though not all of them played at home like Chicago will if playing in that round. Their comps were pretty good in the divisional round, going 2-2 on the road, and 6-1 if hosting. But only two of them broke through to the Super Bowl, and neither won it.

Chicago has a very good point differential, and ranks in the top 5 in net yards per attempt, yards per rushing attempt, and points allowed. The offense is more middle of the pack. They are perhaps the biggest wildcard in the NFC playoffs, capable of losing early but also knocking off the Rams in the divisional round.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

And finally we get to a team that bears some resemblance to past Super Bowl winners. Three of them in fact, with the New Orleans Saints of 2009, the 1995 Cowboys, and the 1997 Broncos.

The Rams have lost two of their last three and are likely to be a little undervalued. Six of their 15 comps reached the Super Bowl. They are an explosive offense ranked in the top 5 in both passing and rushing categories. The pass defense has been surprisingly mediocre despite Aaron Donald’s dominance, while the rush defense has been a major problem. This list of comps might suggest that those things are overrated as concerns.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Folks, the New Orleans Saints are prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl. One of their comps lost a wildcard round game, and two more lost in shocking games in the divisional round. But 80% reached a Championship Game, and two-thirds of them reached a Super Bowl. Nearly half of them won it all. As it turns out, leading the league in point differential and record, having the second-best passing offense, and a stout run defense are positive indicators for success.