Welcome back to the Playoff Edition of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. If you have been following this column through the season, you should be up nicely, as the plays finished 17-9 for the year. If you read the column last weekend, you saw that my picks finished 1-2-1. I’m still reeling from that Bears loss, so please cut me a little slack.
So, this post should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
Colts at Chiefs -4.5, Over/ Under 54.5
Joes vs. Pros Take:
The public is all over the dogs this weekend, and understandably so, as underdogs are now 14-1 in their L15 ATS. That and some recency bias, as everyone saw these teams win last weekend. In regards to the Colts, 60% of the bets are on them, making them a “trendy dog”. The Pros are split on this game. Early sharp money came in on the Colts, but now that the line is down to -4/ 4.5 in some books, other sharps are coming in on the Chiefs. Overall, it looks like there is two-way action on this game, which is always a good sign for oddsmakers.
The Colts are a “live dog” for me, as I see them with a shot at winning this game straight up. Another reason I love the points is that Andrew Luck is also always good for a late garbage touchdown/ backdoor cover possibility when trailing. KC’s weakness is in their defense, and if they don’t get pressure on Luck, he will pick them apart. And, Indy’s D is just good enough to slow this Chiefs offense down. The weather will come into play in this one as well. I will take the points, as I see this one going down to the wire.
Cowboys at Rams -7, Over/ Under 48.5
Joes vs. Pros Take:
It looks like 58% of the public bettors are on the Cowboys, while 55% of the actual money is on the Rams.There is a huge divide in this game, making this game a classic Joes vs. Pros battle. The Cowboys are one of the biggest public teams out there, and of course fans remember their win over the Seahawks last week. Either way, you can be sure the books will be cheering for the Rams in this one.
The Cowboys are a completely different team on the road than they are at home, especially Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys defense. Dak is always good for a turnover on the road it seems, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have one today. I think people forget that the Rams finished the season 13-3, and 7-1 at home SU. Their offense, especially Jared Goff is much better at home. While the fans will be be run over by Cowboy nation, it is still a different field and turf for the ‘Boys than being at home. This line is super sharp, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it end on the number, but I see the Rams with a touchdown late to ice it.
I also spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Risk Management at CG Technology, who had the following to say about this weekend’s games.
Biggest need is going to be the Patriots, which is crazy to think of, but here we are.
Biggest Joes vs. Pros: Joes are on the Cowboys, Pros are on the Rams