Joes vs. Pros: Gambling Breakdown for NFL Divisional Sunday

Welcome back to the Playoff Edition of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. If you have been following this column through the season, you should be up nicely, as the plays finished 17-9 for the year. If you have been reading the playoff version of this column, I’ve gone 2-3-1.

So, this post should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.

Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:

Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.

Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.

Chargers at Pats (-4), Over/ Under 47.5

Joes vs. Pros Take:

The Chargers are this weekend’s trendiest dog, getting 60% of the public action. Huge public dogs don’t fair well, just look at the Colts yesterday. The sharps are split down the line on this one. One thing is for certain, the books are going to be cheering for the Pats. I was told by several bookmakers that they will need New England badly. Crazy…

My Take:

Pats -4

The Chargers have to travel from West to East, play early (will be 10am in their body clocks), and play in the snow (possible)/ freezing cold. Betting on the Pats in the playoffs, especially at home, is usually a winning proposition. Another fun fact is that Tom Brady is 7-0 against Philip Rivers. I see a big game coming from Sony Michel. I feel like anytime people count out the Pats, they end up rolling. I’ll put my money on Bill Belichick aka Hoody and Brady, especially when they are being faded by the public.

Eagles at Saints (-8), Over/ Under 52.5

Joes vs. Pros Take:

55% of the public money is on the Eagles, making Philly another public dog. Of course bettors remember the Eagles playing well against the Bears last weekend (smh), so 8 points seems like a lot to most. Wiseguy money has been pretty split here. It looks like some sharps came in early and took the +10, but there has not been much action on the 8. I can see some sharp money coming in on the Saints late, and this line settling in around 8.5/ 9.

My Take:

Saints -8

Nick Foles and his magic runs out today. The Saints are unstoppable in the Superdome. If the Bears were able to work the Eagles secondary with double moves (second half), Philly is going to have a hard time stopping the connection of Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. Alvin Kamara should run wild in space as well. NOLA routed the Eagles 48-7 earlier this season. And, while this game won’t be that much of a waxing, look for the Saints to win this one by double digits.

I also spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Risk Management at CG Technology, who had the following to say about this weekend’s games. He also confirmed their need for New England:

"Biggest need is going to be the Patriots, which is crazy to think of, but here we are. Biggest Joes vs. Pros: Joes are on the Cowboys, Pros are on the Rams"