Joes vs. Pros: Gambling Breakdown for NFL Conference Championship Sunday
By Vik Chokshi
Welcome back to the Playoff Edition of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. If you have been following this column through the season, you should be up nicely, as the plays finished 17-9 for the year. If you have been reading the playoff version of this column, I’ve gone 3-4-1.
So, this post should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3), Over/ Under 56.5
Joes vs. Pros Take:
The betting action is much more split this weekend in relation to both games. In this one, it looks like the Public is slightly favoring the Rams at a 55% clip. The Public is absolutely loving the total though, with 66% of the bets coming in on the Over.
My Take:
Saints -3
Home field has a huge advantage in the NFL compared to any other sport, especially in the playoffs. In the Conference Championship round the numbers prove this. Over the last 5 years, home teams are 10-0 SU, and 9-1 ATS. Last 10 years, 16-4 SU, and 12-8 ATS. Since 1984, 70-34 SU, and 37-31 ATS. The Saints are unstoppable at home, and the Dome will be rocking. The Public is also on the Rams because of a little recency bias from last weekend. Here is another fun pro Saints stat, since joining New Orleans, Drew Brees is 16-7 ATS including 1-0 ATS in the playoffs when getting fewer than 50% of bets at home.
I just believe this is Brees’ year, especially after the way they went out last season. Look for Brees and Michael Thomas to put on a show just like they did last weekend. Lastly, another reason I love the Saints…NOLA has not given up a 100-yard rusher since the end of LAST season. If they can limit Todd Gurley, they will pull away in this one late.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3), Over/ Under 56
Even though the Pats destroyed the Chargers last weekend, 55% of the Public money is on the Chiefs right now. And, despite the forecast calling for frigid temps, it also looks like 55% of the bets are on the Over.
My Take:
Chiefs -3
I hate betting against the Pats! That being said, I’m going with the Chiefs for lot of the reasons listed above in regards to home field advantage being such a difference maker in the playoffs. The Pats are also a very different road team than they are home team in both the regular season and in the playoffs. Tom Brady himself has a losing record on the road in the playoffs. Arrowhead will be rocking, so Brady’s ability to audible to the right play, what he is magical at, will be harder to execute.
While I love Brady (GOAT), I am rooting for Andy Reid and Dave Toub today, so this might be a biased pick. Reid is one of my favorite coaches of all-time, and Toub deserves a HC shot. Look for an amazing Patrick Mahomes TD late to seal the deal.
I also spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Risk Management at CG Technology, who had the following to say about this weekend’s games:
"Biggest need is going to be the Patriots, similar to last week. Biggest Joes vs. Pros divide is on the Rams-Saints total. Joes are on the Over, Pros are on the Under."