Super Bowl Experience is Overvalued

The New England Patriots have been to the Super Bowl nine times in the last eighteen years. The Los Angeles Rams have not returned since that inaugural Super Bowl win for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, when they were still in St. Louis. The Patriots’ experience seemed to come forth in this postseason as they rolled to the big game after a rather indifferent (at least by their lofty standards) regular season that saw them go undefeated against current playoff teams but lose five times to teams that missed the postseason.

Will that experience matter in this game, where the Rams will be facing the bright lights for the first time? Recent history suggests it is an overrated factor.

Here is every case in the last thirty seasons where one team had won a Super Bowl, and the other franchise had not appeared in a Super Bowl, in any of the previous four seasons. (Super Bowl experience team listed first)

• New England versus Philadelphia, 2018 (Philadelphia 41, New England 33; NE favored by 4.5)
• New England versus Atlanta, 2017 (New England 34, Atlanta 28 (OT); NE favored by 3)
• Pittsburgh versus Green Bay, 2011 (Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25; GB favored by 3)
• Indianapolis versus New Orleans, 2010 (New Orleans 31, Indianapolis 17; IND favored by 4.5)
• Pittsburgh versus Arizona, 2009 (Pittsburgh 27, Arizona 23; PIT favored by 6.5)
• New England versus NY Giants, 2008 (NY Giants 17, New England 14; NE favored by 12.5)
• New England versus Philadelphia, 2005 (New England 24, Philadelphia 21; NE favored by 7)
• New England versus Carolina, 2004 (New England 32, Carolina 29; NE favored by 7)
• Denver versus Atlanta, 1999 (Denver 34, Atlanta 19; DEN favored by 7.5)
• Green Bay versus Denver, 1998 (Denver 31, Green Bay 24; GB favored by 11)
• Dallas versus Pittsburgh, 1996 (Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17, DAL favored by 13.5)
• NY Giants versus Buffalo, 1991 (NY Giants 20, Buffalo 19; BUF favored by 6.5)
• San Francisco versus Cincinnati, 1988 (San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16; SF favored by 6)

The team that had recently been there and done that was 8-5 straight up, but only 3-10 against the spread in the last 13 matchups. The average result was 5 points away from the spread in favor of the inexperienced team. The Patriots, meanwhile, are 5-3 in Super Bowls but 3-5 against the spread, with every game being decided by 8 points or less. They are 1-5 against the spread as Super Bowl favorites, with the cover coming in the 25-point comeback against Atlanta, where the only time they covered all game was on the final play of overtime.