Ranking the Veteran NFL Quarterbacks Likely to Be Changing Teams This Offseason
By Jason Lisk
The NFL veteran QB market will likely not be as robust as last year, when Kirk Cousins was on the open market and Case Keenum was coming off a NFC Championship appearance. But there will be plenty of names, and two former Super Bowl champions likely to be in new places in 2019.
As part of this ranking, I include similar quarterbacks since 1978. These quarterbacks are based on looking at the combined league-adjusted stats for seasons necessary to get to 1,000+ attempts for each player, and comparing similar players over the same age range.
Here’s how we rank the options among the veterans likely to change teams:
#1 Nick Foles, age 30
Nick Foles hasn’t started the last two seasons in Philadelphia, but he has finished them. He has a Super Bowl ring. His career has been up and down, but the ups have been high enough that he is the best option for a team wanting a veteran starter. Between the regular season and playoffs the last two years, he’s averaged 7.2 yards per attempt, and thrown 21 TDs to 11 INTs in 13 starts. He’s shown himself to have good leadership qualities and handled being the backup well. He just turned 30 and has a few years as a starter remaining.
He exercised his buyout of the mutual option, and the Eagles only alternative now is to franchise him to facilitate a trade, or let him go to free agency. But as Mike Florio points out, it would be a CBA violation if they are applying the tag only to trade him.
He’s likely to get overpaid because of the market, and get a deal in the $20 million per year range for three years, but he’s also the safest bet given his age and recent production.
Similar Players (Age 24 to 29): Kyle Orton, Bill Kenney, Bobby Hebert, John Friesz, Jake Delhomme, Stan Humphries
#2 Ryan Tannehill, age 31
Ryan Tannehill’s time in Miami is finally coming to an end. After a lost season in 2017 to a knee injury, he played in 11 games this year and took a beating. He was sacked 11.3% of the time he dropped back. QBR does not look kindly on his season, putting him at a career low 33.1. His career stats have been pretty much near or just below average up until this point, and he’s not young anymore.
But I put him here because (a) he could bounce back two years removed from the knee injury, and in a different environment, and (b) he could still be Mr. Right Now if he’s not Mr. Right, and serve as a bridge starter for a team that needs a starter for 2019 (think Washington because of the Alex Smith injury, for example).
Similar Players (Age 27 to 30): Jay Cutler, Bubby Brister, Vinny Testaverde, Marc Wilson, Chris Miller, Jeff Blake
#3 Ryan Fitzpatrick, age 36
Ryan Fitzpatrick is leaning toward a return in 2019. He’s coming off one of the most unique seasons in NFL history, where he had an extremely high yards per attempt but also a very high interception rate. Half of the guys that put up similar stats to Fitzpatrick in their mid-30’s retired at the same age, but Jeff Garcia did make a pro bowl at age 37 in Tampa, and Carson Palmer was an MVP candidate in Arizona.
I probably have him ranked higher than other lists, but I think he can be a high quality backup option, and start if necessary, to help a contending team. I am not as high on the names below him, and he would be a good option for Cleveland (where Todd Monken is now) as a backup for Baker Mayfield and insurance on burgeoning Cleveland playoff hopes if Mayfield misses any games.
Similar Players (Age 33 to 36): Boomer Esiason, Jeff Garcia, Bobby Hebert, Jim Hart, Jeff Hostetler, Carson Palmer
#4 Blake Bortles, age 27
Blake Bortles has been maddeningly inconsistent in his time with Jacksonville. They probably stuck with him too long. That said, I have him here because of his age and that he is still salvageable. He hasn’t come close to duplicating the 35 passing touchdowns he threw in his second year in the league, but he can still provide good moments. He’s athletic and can make plays with his feet (over 300 rushing yards every season in the NFL). His comps have a couple of players–Dilfer and Sanchez–who seem the most likely course. But Kerry Collins used a change of scenery and taking the game more seriously after some alcohol issues in Carolina, and Jim Plunkett eventually emerged as a veteran in Oakland after some lost seasons. I don’t think that’s the most likely outcome but I do think he’s worth a lower risk investment where he gets to work as a backup.
Similar Players (Age 24 to 26): Trent Dilfer, Mark Sanchez, Kerry Collins, Eli Manning, Chad Henne, Jim Plunkett
#5 Teddy Bridgewater, age 26
Teddy Bridgewater impressed in the last preseason, garnering him a trade from the Jets to the Saints. That came after a lengthy rehab process for his knee injuries, which has basically kept him out since the 2015 season. He did get in to play in the Week 17 game this year, when Drew Brees was sitting after the Saints clinched home field advantage, and the results were not good in a very limited sample.
He’s still young, and he can be a competent backup. Even if you set aside the knee injuries, though, his early career numbers were not suggestive of a star. They more reflected a decent game manager, who could avoid interceptions but took sacks and played it safe.
Similar Players (Age 22 to 26): J.P. Losman, David Whitehurst, Josh McCown, Robert Griffin III, Steve Fuller
#6 Joe Flacco, age 34
Joe Flacco is likely to be overpaid this offseason, as someone else brings him in as a starter (He is, after all, a Super Bowl champion). It would be kind of amusing if Jacksonville jettisons Blake Bortles to get an older, more injured, and less productive version.
There have been 51 quarterbacks who have thrown 1000 passes or more between age 31 and 33. Joe Flacco is dead last in era-adjusted efficiency, and it’s not particularly close. Over the last four years, he’s averaged 6.3 yards per attempt, a full half-yard worse than the next two quarterbacks at the bottom of the list (Bortles and Tannehill). He’s also the lowest in TD percentage in the last four years, well behind Case Keenum and Sam Bradford. He turned 34 in January. Not sure why anyone would think he is more than a backup or due to reverse a clear five-year pattern as he goes into the age when many of his ilk retire.
Similar Players (Age 31 to 33): worse than all of them (Drew Bledsoe?)
#7 Tyrod Taylor, age 29
Tyrod Taylor was a serviceable and sometimes under-appreciated starter in Buffalo through age 28. He wasn’t going to get you a lot of passing yards, but he could make plays with his feet and didn’t turn the ball over much, which is an important skill when the alternative is going to Nathan Peterman.
Last year in Cleveland didn’t work out at all, and the Browns took off once they made the switch away from Taylor. He can still serve as that good, solid backup but I’m not sure he’s got much of a future as a starter, and he would be best served to go to a team where his skill set fits with the team philosophy and the current starter. (He would make sense in Chicago, for example, a team with a top defense and where the starter is also a dual threat).
Similar Players (Age 26 to 29): Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Jeff Blake, Neil Lomax, Randall Cunningham, Jason Campbell
#8 Trevor Siemian, age 27
Trevor Siemian falls into that “clear backup” territory after this time in Denver. He spent last season in Minnesota but did not have to play behind Kirk Cousins. He should collect several backup-quality paychecks over the coming years and make a good living for himself.
Similar Players (Age 25 to 26): Quincy Carter, Mark Sanchez, Paul McDonald, Randy Wright, Josh McCown, Kordell Stewart