Bracketology: Projecting Selection Sunday and Predicting the Early Reveal

The NCAA Selection Committee is going to reveal its seeding of the Top 16 teams in the NCAA Tournament. This reveal is based on results to date through today. It is not a projection of how the season will end up. As we know, the tournament is not set based on results to date only, as there are many big matchups and neutral court conference tournament games to come. So first, I’m going to go through and predict what I think the committee will do with the top 16 slots tomorrow, then I will project where I think the teams will end up on Selection Sunday, including which teams are in or out near the bubble.

Here are my predictions for the reveal tomorrow:

#1 Seeds: Virginia, Duke, Tennessee, Kentucky

There won’t be much drama with the first three spots on the #1 line at the moment. Virginia, Duke, and Tennessee are sure to be there. That fourth spot is wide open between several candidates. I could see Gonzaga being there based on the neutral court win over Duke, Kentucky has a 6-2 record against Quad 1 teams to date, pushing them slightly ahead of Michigan there. Michigan State has eight Quad 1 wins, but five total losses. They are actually my projection to get the final spot by Selection Sunday, but I’ll go with Kentucky.

#2 Seeds: Gonzaga, Michigan State, Michigan, North Carolina

The three other teams in consideration for the #1 seed get the 2-line here, and for the last spot I’ll project North Carolina, who are 5-4 against Quad 1 opponents, 18-4 overall, have wins against Gonzaga and at Louisville and have three of their losses against teams likely to be in the early reveal.

#3 Seeds: Houston, Wisconsin, Purdue, Kansas

Houston falls here for now, with a best win of at home against LSU and second-best win at Central Florida. If anything, they are in danger of falling unless they win out, as the other teams around them will continue to rack up big wins over the next month. Wisconsin and Purdue have six and five Quad 1 wins respectively in a tough Big Ten. As for Kansas, I don’t think that’s what should happen, but this committee is not predicting how the struggling Jayhawks will finish with their depth issues. They are tied for the most Quad 1 wins (8), and have the most Quad 1 + 2 wins (13) of any team currently.

#4 Seeds: Virginia Tech, Marquette, Louisville, Iowa State

Virginia Tech and Louisville fall in this range out of the ACC. Marquette, on the strength of wins over Wisconsin and Louisville in the non-conference, is currently ahead of conference mate Villanova in what the committee values, despite the Wildcats’ resurgence (They will meet tomorrow after the release). Iowa State, who now looks like a slight favorite to win a muddled Big 12, get this spot thanks to a 4-3 record in Quad 1 road games.

Others in consideration: Villanova is surging and could make a leap if they win at Marquette tomorrow; Nevada is 22-1 but has not played a single Quad 1 game so far, the only team in the Top 100 in the NET rankings for which that is true; LSU has games against Kentucky and Tennessee remaining, which will decide how high they can rise; Texas Tech is ranked 16th in the NET but has a losing record against Quad 1 opponents.

So those are my picks for the early reveal. Click forward if you want to see my future projections for team seeding, records, and Quad 1 records on Selection Sunday.

These projections do not just account for results to date. They also look at future schedules, including likely conference tourney seeding, and project how teams will look on Selection Sunday. The NET rankings here are the future projected NET rankings at BartTorvik.com, “POM” is for current ranking by Ken Pomeroy, and overall and Quad 1 results include future game projections.

The biggest risers since my last projection are Baylor (12 to 8), Ohio State, Clemson and Minnesota (from out of field to in). The biggest fallers are Kansas (from 2 to 4), Nebraska (from 6 to 10), NC State and TCU (from 8 to 12 and in Dayton), and UCF, Arizona State, Butler, and Seton Hall falling out.