Texas is Now Going to Be Your Controversial Bubble Team
By Jason Lisk
The Texas Longhorns just became your bubble test extraordinaire for this committee. Texas came into a home game against TCU–a team who looked like they were squarely right on the bubble–at 16-14.
Securing a home win seemed almost certain to put Texas, despite their overall record, as a lock into the field. The Longhorns’ NET ranking entering the day was 34th. They have five “Quadrant 1” wins, including beating North Carolina and Purdue in the non-conference. A win would have locked up a 9-9 conference record in the Big 12, one of the deepest conferences in the nation.
There is simply no precedent for a power conference team being ranked that highly in the NCAA’s selection metric of choice, and having that many top wins, and not getting in the field. Of course, there’s also no precedent for a 16-15 team getting in the tourney as an at-large.
Texas now has to go to the Big 12 Tournament, and it looks like they will be the #6 seed and have to open with the Kansas Jayhawks in Kansas City. A loss there puts them at a dead even 16-16. The Committee has fallen in love with the big win at the expense of punishing teams for mediocre overall performances from big conferences, but Texas is an extreme case. I don’t see how a committee with a lick of sense puts them in over mid-majors like Belmont (if they do lose to Murray State tonight to finish 26-5).
Texas would be 5-10 against Quad 1, but only a dismal 8-6 against Quad 2 and 3 combined. No other team in the Top 50 has a winning percentage that low against the types of games a tournament team should generally win. And if they are playing the poor man’s role of Indiana (6-9 against Quad 1 but 16-14), they may be behind the Hoosiers in that category.
I don’t see how they get in, but then again the selection committee, when they surprise me, is always because of just how much deference they give power conference teams with some big wins but lots of questionable losses. I personally would rather see some mid-majors try to pull a Cinderella run than watch a team like Texas that knows how to do just enough to lose.