Bubble Breakdown: Belmont Right on Cut Line, Florida and Texas Now Have Work to Do

I’ll have my full bracket projections late tonight entering conference tournament week, once the final regular season games have been played. But yesterday was a big day on the bubble, with one conference tournament wrapping up and putting Ja Morant and Murray State in the tournament, and Belmont squarely on the bubble. That, combined with several big wins by teams near the cut line, has altered the outlook. Right now, it’s still cloudy, and there are about 10 teams right near the cut line where a result or two could swing it.

But keep in mind we are about to embark on a week where the number of at-large spots could shrink by 2-3 spots. Unless Wofford, Nevada, Buffalo, and Washington/Arizona State all win their conference tournaments, you will see some teams projected as auto bids move to the at-large pool. That also doesn’t account for a massive upset, like someone knocking off Gonzaga, or the Big East mess where plenty of teams could win it, including a team that otherwise wouldn’t get in.

I have 32 teams in the tournament, and you’ll just have to see who I project tonight for the top of the bracket. I should also say go play around with the tools at BartTorvik.com, which I have been using to find similar teams and assess the bubble.

VERY LIKELY IN 

These teams are probably in good shape regardless of what happens, but don’t tempt fate or a shortened bubble.

VCU: Barring a loss in the quarterfinal matchup, I think they are safe. Even then, they are probably still in, but such a loss would guarantee the bubble shrinks anyway, which is why I only have them as very likely in.

UCF: Wins at Houston and at home against Cincinnati almost certainly locked up a bid. A third win at Temple would have sealed it. For now, they look almost certain to fall in that 8/9 range, and the only thing that could make things nervy is an immediate loss.

WASHINGTON: I know they lost to Oregon yesterday, and the Pac-12 isn’t a powerhouse. They are still 8-6 against the top two quadrants with only one bad loss (at Cal). I don’t think they should go losing in the Pac-12 Quarters though.

SETON HALL: have almost certainly moved themselves into the field with this week’s sweep of Marquette and Villanova. A loss to Georgetown in the first round would at least keep the door open, and allow the Hoyas to remain alive themselves to grab an unlikely auto bid.

MINNESOTA: Teams like Minnesota almost always get in, at around a 10 seed. That’s where they look targeted, and only a loss in that 7/10 or 8/9 Big Ten opener could make that get nervy. Otherwise, they’ve probably done just enough.

PROBABLY IN

These teams might need another result depending on how it goes. They would be in above the Dayton play-in game line right now but vulnerable to big results from bubble teams below them.

OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes could confirm it with a home win over Wisconsin, which would be their best win of the year along with the opener at Cincinnati. A loss, though, would leave them somewhat vulnerable to yet another loss in the 8/9 game of the Big Ten tournament and being nervous on Selection Sunday.

SYRACUSE: They could have locked it up with a road win at Clemson by taking down a direct competitor. It didn’t happen. A loss to the BC/Pitt winner is something they want to avoid to stay above the bubble fray.

TEMPLE: The UCF win might have been enough to put them in. I say might, because the committee looks at bright lines like Quad 1 and Quad 2, when there are shades of gray. UCF is holding on as a Quad 1 home win, barely. The win at Missouri just barely dropped out as a Quad 1 road win. They could be 3-6 or 1-6 against Quad 1 depending on how results go, and I wish I was being sarcastic about that mattering.

JUST ABOVE CUT LINE

These are teams I have in the field right now but they are very much vulnerable and my confidence is not 100%.

UTAH STATE: The Nevada win was huge. But enough mid-majors like Utah State have been snubbed that I’m not completely confident. I wouldn’t go losing to New Mexico or Wyoming in the quarters. I think if they reach the final and play Nevada they are in. A semifinal loss to Fresno State would have me probably having them in the field, but with uneasy confidence in what the selection committee would do.

ST. JOHN’S: I personally would have St. John’s in a lot more trouble than they are. They went under .500 in a lackluster Big East. The best non-conference win was over VCU in Brooklyn. But they will have 5 or 6 Quad 1 wins depending on where things end up, and those kind of teams usually make it. A loss to DePaul, though, in the Big East, and the NET plummets outside the Top 70, and maybe a committee would be inclined to notice they are 13-12 combined against the top three quadrants.

TCU: TCU is another team I would be more down on than history shows the committee is. They are 7-11 in the Big 12 and the best non-conference win to go with that is–take your pick–Fresno State at home or blowing out USC in LA. (They lost at home to Lipscomb, who Belmont beat twice). But most of the teams with TCU’s profile tend to slip in the final few spots. A loss to Oklahoma State again, though, could alter that, as could upsets below them. For now, the Texas road win was huge to go with the season sweep of Iowa State.

BUBBLE MADNESS

These teams are right on the cut line, vulnerable to both results below, losses, and the bubble shrinking by a few spots. Half these teams might get in–or it could be a lot less.

CLEMSON: Clemson stayed right on the top side of the bubble with the Syracuse win. That sets up a showdown with NC State in the ACC Tournament. Winner adds a key Quad 1 neutral court victory and for me, secures a spot. Loser remains vulnerable.

NC STATE: I ranted on the NC State strength of schedule thing on Twitter yesterday.

If the RPI was still in play, NC State would have no chance. That said, they are still very much right on the cut line. They are only 2-8 against Quad 1 teams, and we saw the committee leave out a Louisville team that had a RPI in the mid-30’s a year ago who went 3-10 against Quad 1. The counter, though, is that Louisville was only 2-3 against Quad 2 while NC State is 6-0 and thus has a .500 record against the top two tiers. I have them in, but targeted for Dayton, now.

ARIZONA STATE: How much will the committee care about the NET rating, where Arizona State is currently outside the Top 65. They have wins over Kansas, Mississippi State, and a key win over another potential bubble team in Utah State. The Pac-12 has done them no favors. They may need a quality run in the tournament to seal things up. Probably want to beat the UCLA/Stanford winner at least.

INDIANA: So many quality wins. So many losses to the next tier of teams. They don’t have any bad losses, but do wins over Michigan State (2x), Marquette, Wisconsin, and Louisville overcome a 8-14 overall record against Quadrants 1 and 2? It might, at 17-14 heading to the Big Ten tournament. A home loss to Rutgers though would drop them to 16-15 and give them the first Quadrant 3 loss of the year. A win over Rutgers probably has them right on the cutline pending bid thief scenarios, and beating either Ohio State or Minnesota (depending on tiebreakers) in the opener would put them in.

BELMONT: Belmont, in my opinion, should be in. I think the quality mid-majors have for some reason faced even more bias in the last couple years. Before last year, I would have said that Belmont would have had an above average chance. We’ve seen teams like VCU, Middle Tennessee, Wichita State, BYU, Boise State, Dayton, and Iona get sent to play in Dayton after losing in the conference tourneys. But last year, both St. Mary’s and Middle Tennessee were rejected, and they have similar profiles. I’ll say right on the cut line now, but realistically out by the time a few slots shrink by Selection Sunday.

CREIGHTON: Last weekend, Creighton got a big road win at Marquette. Then, over the last week, we saw Marquette continue to lose, and other bubble teams come up with wins to move back around them. They must beat Xavier. They might need to beat Villanova in the semis, because a 3-11 Quad 1 record and losing record against the top two Quads overall probably won’t cut it by Selection Sunday.

TEXAS: By quality wins, they are in. But they are 16-15 after getting blasted at home by TCU, and face Kansas. I don’t think they get selected at 16-16. Kansas is now a must-win.

FURMAN: If they beat UNC Greensboro today, they have a competent bubble case to go to Dayton if they then lose to Wofford in the final. It might be stronger than Belmont based on the road win at Villanova. They’ll at least be in the conversation.

FLORIDA: Florida has put themselves in trouble. The loss to Georgia a week ago was a bad one, and then they could not get a win over LSU or Kentucky. That leaves them 3-11 against Quadrant 1, coupled with two Quad 3 losses. That 6-12 overall record against Quads 1 & 2, along with the two other losses, has them very much needing results in the SEC Tourney. Must beat Arkansas. Probably need to beat #1 seed LSU to get that key win they have missed out on most of the year.

UNC GREENSBORO: Like Furman, Greensboro has a competent at-large case, and if they beat Furman could go to 2-6 against Quad 1, with no other losses.

COULD USE SOME WINS, BUT AT-LARGE STILL A SLIM POSSIBILITY

ALABAMA: At this point, Alabama has work today, and has to go beat Ole Miss in the SEC Tourney, and maybe do more. Their comparables show Arizona State from last year, who got in with the Xavier and Kansas wins, despite a mediocre resume otherwise, and a bunch of teams that were not selected.

GEORGETOWN: What a schizophrenic team. They got destroyed by DePaul then won at Marquette last week. Sure, they are 4-6 against Quad 1, but also 12-13 overall against Quads 1, 2 & 3, which just isn’t good enough. They could at least be in the conversation by beating Seton Hall, then Marquette again, to reach the final.

OREGON: Oregon’s road win at Washington at least has them with a slim at-large chance. It would require reaching the Final by beating Arizona State. I don’t know if that would be enough but they would at least merit a conversation then.