8 Bold Final Four Predictions

Virginia’s Kyle Guy wins Most Outstanding Player

He’s never met a big shot he didn’t like. Ice water runs through his veins. He matched Carsen Edwards in the Elite 8 and is immune to pressure. Virginia has seemed vulnerable, but its guard play (shoutout Ty Jerome) has come through when it matters. Something tells me the championship is going to be decided by a Guy look, and I fully expect him to knock it down.

Michigan State has a significant homecourt advantage

Easily the biggest fanbase of the four teams and the one closest to Minneapolis. Spartans will travel in bunches. Not that it really matters in the Final Four, though. The 2009 national championship game in Detroit comes to mind.

Charles Barkley has a hell of a time

This was probably a good prediction outside of Auburn’s involvement. Now it feels like the perfect storm. Sir Charles reveling in his alma mater’s first Final Four appearance with an exuberant fan base? We may need periodic wellness checks.

Auburn shoots 35 threes per game

The Tigers have averaged 30.2 shot attempts from behind the arc during the tournament and, collectively, lack a conscience. Virginia’s Pack Line defense clogs up the middle and makes the drive-and-dish lean more heavily to the dish. Purdue also used the longball to victimize the Cavaliers.

Texas Tech forces 18 turnovers against MSU

The Red Raiders lead the nation in defensive efficiency. The ball-hawking unit gets its paws on the basketball more than any other team. For all of MSU’s greatness, the one fly in the ointment has been a propensity to turn the ball over. This is a very bad recipe for Tom Izzo’s team and a great opportunity for Chris Beard’s to get some easy buckets in transition.

The one-and-done referendum talk gets annoying

OK, this is an easy one. We’re there already. These four teams are led by experienced players. There are no one-and-dones on any roster. There aren’t a plethora of lottery picks. But that doesn’t mean this is the only way to win in college basketball. Making too much of this is predictable but silly. Look at the slim margins of this tournament and every tournament.

Bruce Pearl gets sweaty

Sure, we could wade through the complicated legacy and attempted rehabilitation of the coach, but that’s heavy stuff. Look at him perspire. Reminds me of Ben Stiller in Along Came Polly.

Both semifinals games are decided by 5 points or less

Fresh off the most entertaining and nail-biting Elite 8 round in history, the momentum will keep going. Texas Tech-MSU is fairly even on paper and should be a slugfest. Virginia has a tough time blowing anyone out. Get ready to be nervous.