The Bucks Are the Most Legitimate Candidates to Dethrone the Warriors

Since Kevin Durant signed with Golden State, it has felt like a foregone conclusion that the Warriors would win every championship. So far they’ve done that, though the Rockets did put a scare into them in Game 7 of the Western Conference finals last year, and this season they remain 1-2 (which means you have to bet $2 to win $1) title favorites at press time. Nevertheless, if anyone’s got a shot to knock them off, the Bucks are the best positioned (in disclosure, I’m a Bucks fan so judge for yourself if I’m overly drinking the Kool-Aid).

After completing a nationally televised comeback in Philadelphia Thursday night, in which they were down seven in the fourth quarter, the Bucks clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. There’s an infectious energy in the Fiserv Forum and once the weather gets nice they have an outside bar/patio area that is going to be a sea of green. Mark my words: They will get a big environmental boost in the playoffs.

Any discussion of the Bucks has to start with Giannis Antetokounmpo, the presumptive MVP. Everyone knows he’s great, but every time you watch him he does something spectacular. The 76ers game displayed his underrated defensive prowess — he was disrupting everything they did, chasing down blocks from behind, and generally putting his stamp on a game that his team didn’t necessarily need, but was nice to have over a possible playoff opponent that has been dismissive of them.

Mike Budenholzer has installed a system that has enabled both Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe to thrive. Brook Lopez suddenly has the nickname Splash Mountain, which is an astounding occurrence given in his first six years in the league he made zero three-pointers, and then made three combined in the next two. The team’s advanced metrics have been great all season. This table also bodes well:

Where the Bucks are vulnerable is with their health. Giannis has been battling a nagging ankle injury. Malcolm Brogdon and Niko Mirotic are both out right now with injuries, and you never know how their bodies will respond upon their return.

The 76ers could plausibly emerge out of the East, but they’d be dead in the water against the Warriors because Ben Simmons can’t and won’t shoot 3’s, and the Warriors would exploit that with their spacing. The Celtics have quietly won four out of five, but have seemed like something is wrong with them all season. The Raptors would also present some matchup issues for the Warriors, but it’s hard to see them even pushing a series to seven.

If the Warriors are healthy, the Bucks would obviously not be favored in the series, but they take so many three-pointers that the high variance that entails would give them a chance against Golden State.