AFC Championship Game 2025: Previewing Bills vs. Chiefs NFL Playoffs Matchup

The Buffalo Bills have been one of the NFL's dominant teams for the last five years. They've won 10 or more games in each of the last six seasons, and 11 or more for five straight. They've won at least 13 games three times in that span.

And yet, they've never advanced beyond the AFC Championship Game, and have lost in three straight divisional round matchups. The reason? The Kansas City Chiefs.

In the last four seasons, Buffalo has lost to Kansas City three times; once in the AFC title game in 2020, and twice in the divisional round, last season and in 2021. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have haunted the nightmares of Bills fans, the hump they can't seem to get past. The last two have been particularly brutal; they lost in 2023 by all of three points, as the offense stalled out in the fourth quarter, and lost an absolute heartbreaker in overtime in 2021.

This year feels different, though. The Bills have an explosive offense, and a defense that has shown real steel at moments throughout the season, and face a Chiefs team that lacks some of its exposive tendencies from years past. Will Josh Allen and company finally break through? Or will Kansas City continue its reign of terror over upstate New York? Let's break it down.

Tale of the Tape: These two teams met in Week 9, and the Bills handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season, and the only one they suffered with their starters in the game, 30-21. Buffalo threw the ball well, but used its run game to score points, putting up 262 yards through the air, but rushing for 3 touchdowns. They picked off Mahomes twice, and held the Chiefs under 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards on the day.

Chiefs' Offense: To put it bluntly, this team relies almost exclusively on Patrick Mahomes' magic on the offensive side of the ball. They struggle to generate consistent run penetration, ranking 22nd in rushing yards and 27th in yards per carry on the year, and they don't really break big plays, either.

The passing game is similarly pedestrian; they rank just 14th in yards and 11th in touchdowns through the air, and rank 26th in yards per completion and 24th in yards per attempt. They rely heavily on their efficiency; they're going to get their four to eight yards a play, but they're rarely going to hit you on a massive play downfield.

They may not be flashy, but they do enough.

Chiefs' Defense: The real stars of this show are on the defensive side of the ball this season. Kansas City ranks fourth in scoring defense and ninth in total yards allowed on the year. Their run defense is particularly vicious this year; they rank fourth in yards per carry allowed, and have allowed just 13 touchdowns on the ground.

Against the pass, Kansas City relies on getting pressure on the quarterback. They rank fifth in pressure percentage while blitzing on the fourth-highest percentage of snaps in the NFL, and have the second-highest knockdown percentage in the league. Their singular defensive goal is to cause chaos in your backfield, and Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, and Tershon Wharton are very good at it. They can be beaten through the air, but you have to weather the pass rush, and try not to make mistakes.

Path to Victory: Slow Josh Allen down, and hope Mahomes can get some some end game magic. The offense is going to need every point they can get, even with the defense looking as good as they have this season. Minimize mistakes, and hope one of your receivers shows up enough to make some plays.

Bills' Offense: This is Buffalo's big strength in this one. They rank second in the NFL in scoring, behind only the Detroit Lions, and sixth in yards per play. They don't fall outside of the top 10 in passing yards, rushing yards, or passing touchdowns, and have scored more points on the ground than any team in the NFL this season.

Josh Allen has been a revelation, and he's done it by spreading the ball around. While he's very much the heart and soul of the offense, they rely heavily on James Cook in the rushing game to help bolster things. They hang onto the ball better than any team in the NFL, losing just eight turnovers on the year. This team can score, and they don't make many mistakes, which makes them incredibly dangerous.

Bills' Defense: Buffalo is sort of the inverse of Kansas City; where the Chiefs' offense has felt inconsistent and the defense has been dominant, Buffalo has a dominant offense and an inconsistent defense. They rank 24th in passing yards allowed, and sit 27th in yards allowed after the catch, so they're vulnerable over the top. What they lack in stopping power in the passing game, they make up for in ball-hawking tendencies; they rank fifth in the NFL in interceptions on the year.

They blitz on less than 20 percent of snaps, but have a pressure percentage that ranks 10th in the NFL. They get after the quarterback, but don't really generate a ton of sacks on those pressures.

They're pretty middle of the pack against the run, too, ranking 12th in yards allowed, and 11th in touchdowns. They've had moments where they've looked good, but you can absolutely get at this team defensively.

Path to Victory: Get out to a lead early, and don't let Kansas City hang around. Mahomes is still Mahomes, and if they're close in the fourth quarter things could get bad again. Let your offense cook and hope the defense holds up enough to get you across the finish line. They got bailed out by Mark Andrews' hands last week, and there's no guarantee they'd get that lucky in clutch time again.

The Verdict: It feels like madness to pick against Kansas City in the playoffs; they've been as automatic as automatic comes for the last few years, especially before the Super Bowl.

But this is the shakiest Chiefs team in recent history, and the Bills look awfully good. Josh Allen is playing the best football he ever has, and I'm not sure even Kansas City's vaunted defense can slow him down right now. As crazy as it sounds, look for Buffalo to finally get past the hump and shake the ghosts of playoff exits past to get to the Super Bowl here.

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