The Big Lead

Breaking down Boise State's 2025 College Football Playoff outlook

By Sam Westmoreland

Dec 6, 2024; Boise, ID, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) during the first half against the UNLV Rebels at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-Imagn Images
Dec 6, 2024; Boise, ID, USA; Boise State Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty (2) during the first half against the UNLV Rebels at Albertsons Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-Imagn Images / Brian Losness-Imagn Images
facebooktwitter

Boise State is the latest team to get a deep dive into their playoff fortunes. The third-seeded Broncos have been trying to break into the postseason for the better part of 20 years, but now that they're here, can they score a win or two? Let's break it down.

Check out the rest of our playoff preview here:

12. Clemson

5. Texas

11. SMU

6. Penn State

10. Indiana

7. Notre Dame

9. Tennessee

8. Ohio State

4. Arizona State

3. Boise State

2. Georgia

1. Oregon

Record: 12-1 (8-0, Mountain West)

How We Got Here: The Broncos landed the third seed almost by default; a messy Big 12 and ACC in which no one had fewer than two losses opened the door for the Group of Five auto-bid to land much higher than anyone expected them to. The Broncos had some close calls in the Mountain West, but also came as close as anyone has to knocking off Oregon this season and managed to escape a tough back of the schedule unscathed to get themselves a first-round bye. 

The Good: Ashton Jeanty, Ashton Jeanty, Ashton Jeanty. The senior running back is chasing Barry Sanders' record, and has looked every bit the part of a superstar rusher this season. He has yet to be held under 120 yards rushing in a game this year. He is the entirety of the Broncos' offense and cannot be stopped, even when facing eight-plus man boxes all season long. He is inevitable, ineffable, and all you can do is hope to slow him slightly. 

The Bad: More or less everything that isn't Ashton Jeanty. Boise State's defense ranks 65th in EPA, and can be scored on pretty easily, even by Mountain West opposition. The passing game leaves a LOT to be desired as well; despite having a legitimately unstoppable run game, Maddux Madson and the Broncos' passing game ranked just 28th in EPA, and that was largely due to Madson throwing just three picks on the year. The wide receivers leave a lot to be desired, and there really aren't a lot of big plays to be found outside of Jeanty's rushing. Keep him out of the end zone (which again, is no small feat) and you'll grind this offense to a complete halt. 

Playoff Path: The good news for Boise State is that both of their foes in the next round are very beatable. SMU are punchy but vulnerable, and Penn State has shown themselves utterly incapable of winning anything approaching a big game. The Broncos couldn't have asked for a better draw to make it to the semis. And while Georgia are still a terrifying force for a lot of teams, their biggest weakness is their run defense, meaning a matchup with Jeanty and the Broncos could pose REAL problems. 

The Verdict: The Broncos only do one thing well, but they do it terrifyingly well. One win is certainly a reasonable expectation, but with a little bit of luck, Boise State could find themselves playing for a national title. 

Home/CFB