The Big Lead

Breaking down Indiana's 2025 College Football Playoff outlook

By Sam Westmoreland

Nov 30, 2024; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) celebrates a touchdown in the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
Nov 30, 2024; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke (9) celebrates a touchdown in the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
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As our playoff preview series continues, we turn our attention to the 10-seeded Indiana Hoosiers. Will this season's upstart darlings make a playoff run? Or will the clock strike 12 on their Cinderella story? Let's break it down.

Check out the rest of our playoff preview here:

12. Clemson

5. Texas

11. SMU

6. Penn State

10. Indiana

7. Notre Dame

9. Tennessee

8. Ohio State

4. Arizona State

3. Boise State

2. Georgia

1. Oregon

Record: 11-1 (8-1 Big Ten) 

How They Got Here: The Hoosiers were the Cinderella story of the year. The losingest program in all of college football, the eternal doormat who had never won more than nine games in a season, the most hapless of all teams stomped their way to a 10-0 start under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, and finished 11-1. Sure, they got blasted by Ohio State, but even that couldn't dampen the spirits in Bloomington. They cruised into the playoff field after ripping archrivals Purdue to shreds in their last game of the season, and Cignetti looks to continue his charmed run through the year with a win or two in the playoffs.

The Good: Indiana is a team who wins through ruthless efficiency. They are relentless in their pursuit of points, and where SMU scores in bursts, Indiana just grinds out scoring drives on a consistent, constant basis. They rank second in offensive EPA, and second in the nation in scoring, averaging 43.3 points per game. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been electric, and the running back duo of Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton have given the Hoosiers a stellar ground game. Wide receiver Elijah Serrat has looked the part of a star wideout, racking up 890 yards and eight touchdowns on 49 catches.

The defense is solid as well, ranking 17th in defensive EPA, and sixth in the nation in points allowed. Make no mistake, the Hoosiers are legit. They may not fully lock you down, but when they're scoring points on every drive, it can really put the pressure on an offense to perform.

The Bad: The singular knock on the Hoosiers is that they played no one of substance this season, and lost their only real contest badly. Their SP+ was 11th overall after the regular season, worse than eight of the 12 playoff teams, but still respectable. When faced with a legitimate, playoff-caliber foe, will the Hoosiers fold again? 

Playoff Path: The Hoosiers have the must-watch first round matchup against in-state foes Notre Dame. The Irish are a tough, physical team, but they're not unbeatable. After that, it's a matchup with second-seeded Georgia awaiting them, which poses similar problems. The Bulldogs have a decided talent advantage over the Hoosiers, even in a down season. The bracket does Indiana no favors. 

The Verdict: Bask in your historic season, Indiana. You're playing with house money now and whatever happens, they can't take those 11 wins away from you. You certainly belong, even if Notre Dame runs you over like a runaway train. 

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