Breaking Down Oregon's 2025 College Football Playoff outlook
The last team in our Playoff breakdown is the top-seeded Oregon Ducks. Dan Lanning's team is the lone undefeated team in the country. But will Oregon translate regular season success into the postseason glory they've craved for so long? Let's break it down.
Check out the rest of our playoff preview here:
12. Clemson | 5. Texas |
|---|---|
11. SMU | 6. Penn State |
10. Indiana | 7. Notre Dame |
9. Tennessee | 8. Ohio State |
3. Boise State | |
2. Georgia | 1. Oregon |
Record: 13-0 (9-0 SEC)
How We Got Here: The Ducks have been the absolute best team in college football for virtually the entire season. Other than a wobble against Boise State early in the season and a rock fight against Wisconsin in Madison, they handled every challenge their schedule handed them with relative ease. They beat Ohio State by one to establish their claim for the No. 1 seed, and wrapped it up with an impressive win over Penn State, in which they managed to keep the Nittany Lions no closer than a touchdown in the second half in the Big Ten title game. They've been the de facto No. 1 seed since October, and have looked the part all year long.
The Good: The Ducks are ruthlessly efficient under head coach Dan Lanning. They rank fourth in offensive EPA, and pair an excellent rushing attack behind Jordan James and Noah Whittington with an incredibly efficient passing game, led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Much of the Ducks' passing offense relies on their wideouts' speed; they get the ball out quickly on slants and screens and let their athletes do the work. Lanning's offensive scheme is aggressive and creative, and you can bet he'll be ready to make noise in the playoff this year.
But this isn't an all gas, no brakes Oregon team. The defense hits HARD, and has the size and strength to hang with anyone, ranking eighth in defensive EPA on the year. It's hard to find any real holes in this Oregon squad, on either side of the ball.
The Bad: If the Ducks have a weak point, it's probably their run defense. They rank just 12th in EPA stopping the run, and as we saw against Boise State, if you have a good run game, you can get after them. Likewise, if you have elite, Ohio State-caliber wideouts, you can cause them problems as well.
Lannings' aggression is laudable but occasionally risky; the Ducks' fourth-down aggressiveness has been known to be an issue in the past, and could come back to bite them in a big spot at some point during the playoff. It's also still unclear just how good quarterback Dillon Gabriel is; the offensive scheme hides a number of his flaws, and a good defense could exploit his lack of a deep ball by forcing him to beat them over the top.
Playoff Path: Despite being the top seed in the tournament and the number one team in the country, Oregon has the hardest path to the semifinals. They'll either face Ohio State, in a rematch of one of the year's best, closest games; or the absolute wild card that is Tennessee, both of which will provide their own unique set of challenges. If they can escape that bear trap, a potential matchup with Texas could lie in wait in the semis, a team who have only looked mortal against Georgia this season. It's not an easy road to the title for the Ducks.
The Verdict: Oregon is the best team in the country this year, but that may not mean much in a year without any truly great teams. That said, the Ducks lack any massive holes in their team, and are as talented as anyone in the country. It's not national title or bust in Eugene, but this is probably the best chance they've ever had to win one.