Breaking down Penn State's 2025 College Football Playoff outlook

Next up in our Grand Tour of the College football playoff: the Penn State Nittany Lions. A good, balanced team that may or may not be cursed to never win a big football game every again. Let's break it down.

Check out the rest of our playoff preview here:

12. Clemson	5. Texas
11. SMU	6. Penn State
10. Indiana	7. Notre Dame
9. Tennessee	8. Ohio State
4. Arizona State	3. Boise State
2. Georgia	1. Oregon

Record: 11-2, (8-1 Big Ten)

How We Got Here: If you've watched any Penn State season in the James Franklin era, you know how this one went. Penn State looked like world beaters against the vast majority of their schedule. But the Nittany Lions lost one-score games to Ohio State in the regular season and Oregon in the Big Ten title game, staying just close enough to give fans hope, but not close enough to do anything but dash those hopes against the rocks of lackluster late-game play in big games. A tale as old as time.

The Good: Penn State feature a fearsome two-headed rushing attack, in the form of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. They have a quarterback who can throw a gorgeous deep ball in Drew Allar, and the best, most versatile tight end in the country in Tyler Warren. They have a fun, creative offensive scheme, courtesy of coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, that ranks ninth in offensive EPA, and second in passing.

The defense is just as good, ranking 10th in EPA, and in the top 10 against dropbacks and designed runs. Abdul Carter is an absolute monster on the defensive front, and will haunt your quarterback's dreams for months. This is a good, balanced team who won't go down without a fight.

The Bad: While the Nittany Lions have fight, they have a knack for coming out on the losing end of those fights in big games. Franklin is 1-15 (after his loss to No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten title game) against the top five in his career, 3-19 vs. the top 10, and 13-28 vs. the top 25 in his career. He has a history of some questionable time management late in big games, and his playcalling can be described as "actively infuriating" late in those tough matchups. When the lights are brightest, Franklin's Nittany Lions can be counted on to drop the ball, over and over and over again. And with a wide receiver corps that can best be described as "meh," there's absolutely a path to beating Penn State.

Playoff Path: If Franklin wanted a path to success in the playoffs, he got one this year. A first-round home matchup with SMU is as winnable a game as you can hope to get in the playoffs, and following it up with Boise State in the second round makes life even easier for the Nittany Lions. Victory is far from assured in either game, but the Nittany Lions figure to be favorites in both.

The Verdict: If James Franklin wants to shake the choker rep, this is his chance. A trip to the semifinals would silence a lot of critics, and the Nittany Lions have a very good chance to do just that with a couple of very winnable games. An early loss to SMU might cement that legacy beyond all hope of ever shaking it, though.

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