The Big Lead

Breaking down SMU's 2025 College Football Playoff Outlook

By Sam Westmoreland

Dec 7, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) runs for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Clemson Tigers in the 2024 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
Dec 7, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) runs for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Clemson Tigers in the 2024 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
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Our look into the 2025 College Football playoff continues, as the next team in our list is the SMU Mustangs. So, let's break it down and see whether this previously fallen power's rise to glory will continue, or if the Mustangs are little more than pretenders to the throne.

Check out the rest of our playoff preview here:

12. Clemson

5. Texas

11. SMU

6. Penn State

10. Indiana

7. Notre Dame

9. Tennessee

8. Ohio State

4. Arizona State

3. Boise State

2. Georgia

1. Oregon

Record: 11-2 (8-0 ACC) 

How We Got Here: The Mustangs were a pleasant surprise during the ACC season, bouncing back from a 3-point loss to BYU in their third game to go undefeated in conference play this year. Sure, they didn't have to play Clemson, Miami, or Syracuse at any point, but they handled their business otherwise. A frantic rally from a 24-7 halftime deficit in the ACC title game against Clemson likely got SMU into the field, but they looked the part of deserving entrant for most of the season. 

The Good: The Mustangs have one of the most fun offenses in college football. They rank 16th in offensive EPA, and quarterback Kevin Jennings has grown into a fantastic passer over the course of the season. Running back Brashard Smith racked up 1,270 yards on the ground, but Jennings and the passing game are where the SMU really shines. Head coach Rhett Lashlee runs a hybrid air raid scheme, but also likes to pair it with a power run game, and Jennings' abilities with his feet add yet another dimension to the offense. SMU can put up points in bunches, and it makes them incredibly hard to stop. 

The defense are the unsung heroes of this team, though. They rank 11th in EPA, and are the third-best team in the country against the run by that same metric. They kept this team in a number of games this season, including their one-point win over Duke.   

The Bad: Despite a relatively soft conference schedule in their ACC debut, SMU has had a decent amount of "getting away with it." They turned the ball over six times in their one-point win over Duke, and have looked good but not great in the vast majority of their wins this season. Against the level of competition they'll be facing in the Playoff, it's not clear if the Mustangs quite have the talent to keep up, especially defensively. 

Playoff Path: The Mustangs face a tough out in six-seeded Penn State in the first round, but have arguably the easiest matchup of any team in the quarterfinals, against third-ranked Boise State. If they can hang with and shock Penn State (which is hardly out of the question), we could see the Mustangs make a semi-final run. 

The Verdict: SMU fans have been waiting for this since the team got the death penalty in 1987, and now thye've made it back to the mountaintop. There's no denying the Mustangs are on the rise. But we might be a year early to see just how good they can really be. Can they beat Penn State? Sure. Can they do it on a cold night in Happy Valley with a delirious crowd bearing down on them? Maybe not.

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