The Big Lead

Breaking down Tennessee's 2025 College Football Playoff outlook

By Sam Westmoreland

Nov 30, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers running back Dylan Sampson (6) runs the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
Nov 30, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Volunteers running back Dylan Sampson (6) runs the ball against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at FirstBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images / Steve Roberts-Imagn Images
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Next up in our Playoff preview is the Tennessee Volunteers. The Vols looked solid all season, but questions remain, especially about the offense. Can the Vols put everything together for a deep run? Or are they heading for an early exit? Let's break it down.

Check out the rest of our playoff preview here:

12. Clemson

5. Texas

11. SMU

6. Penn State

10. Indiana

7. Notre Dame

9. Tennessee

8. Ohio State

4. Arizona State

3. Boise State

2. Georgia

1. Oregon

Record: 10-2 (6-2 SEC) 

How We Got Here: The Vols were quietly, consistently ranked in the top 10 all season long, a virtual lock for the playoff. Not even a shocking early-season loss to Arkansas could pry them out of the top 10, and an expected loss to Georgia hardly dented their playoff resume, given the state of the rest of the SEC. For the most part, Tennessee took care of business, and seem perfectly placed as the tournament's ninth seed. 

The Good: For all the consistency of their results this season, the Vols might be the most volatile substance in the playoff. Despite running Josh Heupel's veer and shoot offense, known for big passing yards and explosive plays downfield, Tennessee's running game is the thing that should have teams the most concerned. Sophomore running back Dylan Sampson is a stud, and as a result the Vols have the 12th-best rushing EPA in the nation. Freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava is still learning the ropes, but when he's on, Tennessee's offense is absolutely unstoppable. 

But the real strength of Tennessee is its defense. The front seven might be the most terrifying unit in the game this year, led by the unstoppable force that is James Pearce, Jr. The Vols have the best defensive EPA in the country against the run, and the fourth best against dropbacks. This team is MEAN defensively. 

The Bad: About that passing offense. Iamaleava is still a freshman, and has looked better in recent weeks, but the Tennessee wide receiver corps doesn't really inspire much fear. They struggle with drops, and when teams drop eight into coverage, the Vols look lost throwing the ball. When Nico's hitting, they're tough to stop, but when he's not, it can look ugly, like it did against Arkansas. It's felt all year like the Vols are doing just enough to get wins, and it will be interesting to see if they have another gear they can hit when they need to in the playoffs. 

Playoff Path: A first-round road matchup against a very talented Ohio State team figures to be a tough one, especially with a freshman quarterback. But the Vols' defense is the great equalizer here. Oregon in the second round might be a bit much for this young Tennessee team, but if Nico gets hot, all things are possible. 

The Verdict: The volatile nature of Tennessee's offense makes them the toughest team to predict in this field. If they get hot, there aren't many teams who can beat them. But if Nico and the wideouts struggle, they're eminently beatable. They feel as likely to make a deep run as they do to lose to Ohio State. So, buckle up, Vols fans, and enjoy the chaos. 

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