Breaking down Texas' 2025 College Football Playoff outlook

The fifth-seeded Texas Longhorns are the next team to get a deep dive into their playoff hopes. Is Texas back for real now? Or are the Longhorns faithful still waiting for that elusive return to glory?

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12. Clemson	5. Texas
11. SMU	6. Penn State
10. Indiana	7. Notre Dame
9. Tennessee	8. Ohio State
4. Arizona State	3. Boise State
2. Georgia	1. Oregon

Record: 11-2 (7-1 SEC)

How We Got Here: Texas smashed all comers this season, with one notable exception: Georgia. The Longhorns' two losses on the year both came against the Bulldogs, and other than a wobble against Vanderbilt, Steve Sarkisian's team has otherwise looked the part of title contenders.

The Good: Texas sit second in net EPA on the year, and fourth in SP+. They've been good to great on both sides of the ball at various points in the season, stomping their way through all non-Georgia, non Vanderbilt foes thanks to a balanced offense that ranks in the top 10 in both passing and rushing EPA. This isn't the star-studded Longhorns roster of last year; quarterback Quinn Ewers has spread the ball around, and none of Texas' pass catchers or running backs came within 100 yards of breaking the 1,000 yard mark on the year.

The defense has just...locked people down. They rank second in points allowed per game, and rank in the top five against both the run and the pass.

The Bad: Those losses against Georgia were telling for the Longhorns, and exposed their balanced offense for what it is: they're just not that great at either rushing or passing individually. Ewers has looked banged up for most of the back half of the season, and the offensive line is beaten up. This Texas team is still very, very good, but if you have a good defense, they're definitely beatable.

The defense is a tougher nut to crack, but if you can keep the Longhorns off the scoreboard for long enough, they've shown they're beatable in a rock fight. Drag them into the mud, and see if they can squeak it out when things are tight.

Playoff Path: Texas has the benefit of facing Clemson in Austin for their first-round game. The Tigers might hang around a little, but it's hard to see a path to victory for them. From there, they'd face an Arizona State team who are fun, but potentially vulnerable despite landing the fourth seed. In fact, the first real test Texas would likely face would come from Oregon, Ohio State, or Tennessee in the semis.

The Verdict: This team has looked mostly untouchable by anyone other than Georgia this year. They're somewhat flawed, particularly on offense, but don't expect them to go quietly into the night. The semifinals feel likely, and from there a national title game appearance wouldn't be shocking at all. Texas may not be back, but they're closer than they've been since Vince Young was wearing the burnt orange.

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