College Football Playoff 2025: Breaking down Penn State vs. Boise State quarterfinal

After the Penn State Nittany Lions beat the SMU Mustangs in the College Football Playoff first round, many asked: did the win end James Franklin's streak of losing big games? The answer likely depended on who you talked to.

In the eyes of some, the Nittany Lions' dominant win in Happy Valley proved that Franklin could win a big game on a big stage in front of millions of expectant eyeballs. They handled their business and then some.

But if you ask the majority of Penn State fans, I'd suspect that answer might be a bit different. The Mustangs looked outclassed from the jump, and Penn State handled their business they way they should. Losing to that team would have been unconscionable, but a win was just business as usual.

Will the Boise State Broncos, the Nittany Lions' opponent this week, sate the desire of Penn State fans to finally score a signature win? Let's break it down.

Tale of the Tape: This will be the first-ever matchup between these two schools, which isn't really a surprise. For most of both of their respective existences, they've been in fully different stratospheres of the sport; Penn State the historic power, Boise the upstart eager to get to the grown-ups table. The Broncos have only been in FBS since 1996, after all.

Boise State's Strengths: This Broncos team does one thing, and one thing only, but oh boy do they do it well. Running back Ashton Jeanty is on the cusp of breaking Barry Sanders' official rushing record, sitting just 132 yards away (although he'll need 353 yards to break the unofficial mark). He's averaged 7.3 yards per carry, and done so against stacked boxes all season long. The junior back is a singular talent, and one that no defense anywhere in college football has managed to contain this year. He has yet to run for less than 127 yards in a game (on 11 carries in a half against Portland State), or 128 yards over a full game's work (on 33 carries against UNLV). You cannot hope to stop Ashton Jeanty; you can only hope he gets tired and then you tackle him.

Boise State's Weaknesses: In a word: everything else. The passing game ranks just 28th in EPA, and junior quarterback Maddux Madsen has struggled to find any kind of consistent deep threat in his wide receiver corps. If Jeanty's not clicking, there's not really an easy button to pick up yards on offense.

Defensively, things aren't much better. The Broncos rank 62nd in defensive EPA, behind fellow Group of Five teams Fresno State, UNLV, Texas State, UConn, UNLV, James Madison, and Tulane. There are plenty of yards to be had against this Broncos defense, and most of them will come through the air. They rank 36th in EPA against the run, but make no mistake, there is joy to be found against the Boise defense.

Path to Victory: Ashton Jeanty is a singular talent, but make no mistake: he cannot win this game alone. The Broncos' defense has to keep this game close; if they go down by two or more scores, they're going to have to throw, and bad things happen when Boise State is forced to throw the ball. Madsen and the wideouts need to make plays to give Jeanty space to work. If they do, the star back is plenty good enough to steal a victory from the Nittany Lions here.

Penn State's Strengths: This is not a team with a ton of flaws on either side of the ball. They rank ninth in offensive EPA, and in the top 20 in both passing and rushing. Running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen have both thrived in Andy Kotelnicki's system this season racking up 1,820 combined rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. Quarterback Drew Allar has a fantastic arm, and doesn't turn the ball over, throwing just seven picks on the season. Tight end Tyler Warren is a do-everything superstar for this team; capable of blocking, catching passes, and rushing the ball out of special formations.

But the Nittany Lions are just as good defensively, ranking 10th in defensive EPA behind a fearsome defensive front. Led by edge rushers Abdul Carter and Dani Denis-Sutton, Penn State don't give up a ton of points to anyone but the absolute best teams in football. They're good against the run and the pass, and one need look no further than their dominant performance against SMU to see just how good they can be.

Penn State's Weaknesses: This is a very good team on paper, but games aren't played on paper. And when faced with a great team, or even an equally good team, James Franklin has not fared well, historically. Franklin has a tendency to make the most baffling late-game decisions in terms of play calling and time management. Put them in a close game late against a good team, and watch the chaos unfold as Franklin gets so deep in his own head he has no chance of getting out.

Path to Victory: Stop. Ashton. Jeanty. The Penn State offense is plenty good enough to keep up with Boise State's offense, and this figures to be the best rush defense the back has seen all season. Get up early, handle your business and let your superior overall talent outweigh the singular brilliance of the Broncos' talismanic back.

The Verdict: While Boise State can win, I don't think they will. Even if Jeanty runs wild here, the Broncos' defense isn't built to stop an offense like this, and they need too many things to go right offensively to really have a hope of escaping this one with a win. Yes, they very nearly beat the Oregon team that thumped the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title game, but that was an early-season Ducks team still sorting themselves out, and Penn State has far more tape on Jeanty and the Broncos at this point. They'll be ready for them.

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College Football Playoff 2025: Breaking down Penn State vs. Boise State quarterfinal matchup

By Sam Westmoreland | Dec 30, 2024