College Football Playoff 2025: Previewing Ohio State vs. Oregon quarterfinal matchup

The Oregon Ducks are the lone undefeated team left in all of college football. They are battle tested, with three wins over playoff teams on the season, a Heisman finalist at quarterback, and the top-seeded team, and number one ranked team, in the playoff and all of college football.

Yet they are currently two-and-a-half-point underdogs to Ohio State in this game. Why? Let's break it down.

Tale of the Tape: In 11 games all time, Ohio State holds a 9-2 record, but the Ducks have won both of their last two matchups. In 2021, Oregon beat them 35-28, and earlier this year the Ducks took a narrow 32-31 win over Ohio State in Eugene.

Oregon's Strengths: The Ducks have a high-powered offense based around a quick passing game and a power run game. They rank second in the country in rushing EPA, and seventh in the nation in passing. Jordan James and Noah Whittington hit hard, and accelerate well, and head coach Dan Lanning does a stellar job of scheming them into space.

In the passing game, Oregon uses their wideouts' superior speed to generate yards; pint-sized wideout Tez Johnson is a dynamo. They are aggressive and creative offensively; expect them to go for it on fourth down, and to deliver a wild variety of plays to keep things interesting.

Oregon's defense is not the soft unit you've historically associated with the Ducks, either; they rank 9th in defensive EPA and fifth against the pass; Jordan Burch, Derrick Harmon and Matayo Uiagalelei are a vicious front capable of feasting against even the most formidable of offensive lines. You'd better hope your quarterback isn't rattled by pressure, because they're going to bring the heat.

Oregon's Weaknesses: The run defense has struggled at times this season, and while their front three are incredible, there is joy to be found for opposing offenses at times. Both Penn State and these same Buckeyes found plenty of points to be had against the Ducks.

The Ducks rely so heavily on the short passing game because quarterback Dillon Gabriel's arm is...less than impressive. If you find a way to neutralize their speed in the short game, they sometimes struggle to find offensive consistency because Gabriel lacks the arm strength and touch to throw it deep.

Their creativity and aggressiveness is a double-edged sword; the Ducks make big swings, but sometimes that results in big misses, and those misses can be exploited.

Path to Victory: If Oregon gets the passing game rolling, and their defensive front can fluster Will Howard, this could get messy for the Buckeyes. They proved they can score on Ohio State in the last game, now they just have to do it again, and keep their wideouts under control.

Ohio State's Strengths: The Buckeyes have what might be pound-for-pound the best defense in all of football. They rank first in overall defensive EPA, and have no real holes to be exploited. Their front seven can slow down even the best run games in the country, and a secondary that doesn't make many mistakes. They limit big plays, and can get after the quarterback.

If you take the might off that statement, you'd have the Ohio State wide receiver room; Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka would be superstars anywhere, and pairing them together makes the Buckeyes almost impossible to slow down. Their run game ranks eighth in EPA, and Quinshon Judkins and TraVeyon Henderson are both elite backs.

In other words, the Buckeyes are deep, talented, and capable of playing with anyone. They might just be the best team in the country this season.

Ohio State Weaknesses: If the Buckeyes have weaknesses, they are the offensive line and quarterback. Signal-caller Will Howard is a fine college quarterback, but he's hardly elite and has shown a knack for some truly mind-bending turnovers at times. He's not the best passer on earth, and if you get him under pressure his decision making really suffers. The spectre of losing big games under head coach Ryan Day is also looming like the sword of Damocles over this team; they've struggled to get over the hump in recent seasons, and the more hardcore parts of the fan base are growing dissatisfied. Push them a bit and they could crumble.

Path to Victory: Make Oregon's corners contain Smith and Egbuka, let Will Howard work out of the pocket to keep pressure off him when necessary. Contain the Ducks' passing game, and avoid giving up big plays. Make them pay for their gambles.

The Verdict: The first matchup between these teams this season was an absolute classic, and this one figures to be as well. They're as closely matched a set of teams as we'll get this postseason, and this very well could be a de facto championship game. I like Oregon to keep their undefeated season rolling, but an Ohio State victory wouldn't surprise me, especially since they seem so motivated after the Michigan loss.

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