College Football Playoff 2025: Previewing Texas vs. Arizona State quarterfinal

The Arizona State Sun Devils are one of the biggest surprise programs in all of college football. Picked to finish last in the Big 12 this year, Kenny Dillingham's team rode an incredible offense to the top of the conference and the third overall seed in the playoff.

Now, they face their biggest test of the season in the Texas Longhorns. Outside of a pair of losses to Georgia, the Longhorns looked like one of the best teams in all of college football, but came up short of an SEC title in their debut season.

Will the Sun Devils' Cinderella run continue, or will Texas continue to show the dominance against everyone that isn't Georgia they have all season long? Let's break it down.

Tale of the Tape: These two teams have met just once before, in 2007 in the Holiday Bowl. The Longhorns ran for 300 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the Sun Devils threw three interceptions between Rudy Carpenter and Danny Sullivan in Texas' 52-34 win. Outside of that, these two teams have seldom been the same level of good at the same time.

Arizona State's Strengths: This is one of the most efficient offenses in college football, led by one of its breakout stars in running back Cam Skattebo. Were it not for the existence of Ashton Jeanty, Skattebo might have been the best running back in college football. He racked up 1,568 rushing yards, 506 receiving yards, and a total of 22 touchdowns on the year. He is the brick-shaped engine of this offense, keeping things running by pounding defenses for 6 yards a carry. The Sun Devils rank 12th in offensive EPA, and sit firmly in the top 15 in both rushing and passing.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt has been great, throwing 24 touchdowns to just five picks. The offense tends to run first to set up the pass, opening the field for Leavitt to uncork a deep ball. Dillingham's offense is a well-oiled machine, and is the driving force behind Arizona State's success.

Arizona State's Weaknesses: Outside of Ohio State, there are no deep teams in college football, but the Sun Devils are particularly thin at skill positions. Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson accounts for 1,101 of ASU's 2,917 receiving yards this season; no other wideout has more than 320. And Skattebo's backup, Kyson Brown, has just 320 rushing yards on the year. They ride their stars hard, and if they're hurt or taken away, there's no real B option. Which would be fine, but as of now, it seems more likely than not that Tyson won't play.

Arizona State's defense has been solid, but unspectacular this season; they rank 18th in EPA, but sit outside the top 20 against the pass. Their pass rush has been particularly mediocre this season, generating just 21 sacks on the year, with no one picking up more than four.

Path to Victory: Skattebo is going to need to continue his herculean feats against the best defense this team has seen all season. The defense is going to need to harass Quinn Ewers more than they have against any team this season, and Leavitt is going to either need Tyson back, or to find another go-to target. They can win, but they can't afford any mistakes; this is the best team they've faced all season.

Texas' Strengths: Texas has one of the most dominant defenses in all of college football. They shut down the pass all year, ranking second in pass EPA, and sit third in defensive EPA overall. They are nasty defensively, and will shut your passing game down. Their run defense is just as formidable, ranking seventh.

But the offense has been solid all season as well; they rank sixth in rush EPA and ninth in pass EPA. They rely a bit heavily on explosive pass plays on the year, but Quinn Ewers has the kind of arm capable of delivering on big plays through the air. This is one of the best, most talented teams in the country, and it's not particularly close.

Texas' Weaknesses: The run game, can best be described as inconsistent this season; while they've looked dominant at times, they've struggled mightily against good teams to generate any kind of consistent performance.

Quinn Ewers hasn't really looked healthy in at least a couple of months; he moves like he's made of old fiberglass, and his throwing motion has seemed a bit off. He's still good for some of those arcing deep balls, but his touch on shorter passes has been lacking. If you can get some pressure on him, this offense has a tendency to grind to a halt.

Path to Victory: Lock down Skattebo and Tyson, if he plays. Grind the Sun Devils' offense to a halt, and then hit your big plays against their vulnerable defense. Keep Ewers upright.

The Verdict: It's tough to see a truly viable path to a win in this game for Arizona State, especially if Tyson doesn't play. Texas has looked unbeatable against everyone but Georgia this season, and while the Sun Devils are good and fun, they're hardly on the Bulldogs' level. Look for another comfortable Longhorn victory here.

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College Football Playoff 2025: Previewing Texas vs. Arizona State quarterfinal matchup

By Sam Westmoreland | Dec 30, 2024