College football playoff Rankings 2024: Biggest takeaways from week 14's standings
With just one week left in the college football regular season, the only thing we really know about the playoff field is that we don't know anything for sure about anything yet. Sure, we have a pretty decent idea about several of the teams being locks, or close to locks for the field, but even undefeated, number one Oregon could find themselves sweating with a couple of ill-timed losses down the stretch.
Fortunately, the Week 14 Playoff rankings dropped last night, and gave us a good idea of what the committee is thinking about the field moving forward.
THE UPDATED CFP TOP 25 HAS DROPPED 👀 pic.twitter.com/p4pom73Np0
— ESPN (@espn) November 27, 2024
Let's break it down to see what conclusions we can draw from the field as it stands.
INDIANA IS PROBABLY IN THE FIELD
One of the teams who was likely the most nervous about their standing this week was Indiana. The Hoosiers had their first real test of the year and...it went pretty much how everyone figured it would, courtesy of a 38-15 drubbing by Ohio State.
The Hoosiers have been the Cinderella story of the season, going 10-1 heading into their rivalry matchup with arch-rivals Purdue. But if the Committee was looking for a reason to chuck them out of the playoff field, the OSU loss would've been it.
So, the fact that Curt Cignetti's team are ranked 10th and seeded 11th means that as long as the Hoosiers take care of business against the Boilermakers (who might be the worst Power 4 team in football), it's hard to see a scenario where they're left out of the field, as they won't be playing in the Big Ten title game.
THE BIG 12 SHOULD BE VERY CONCERNED
Things are looking TENSE for the Big 12 right now in the rankings. Every good team in the conference is at about the same level, with at least two losses, and their highest-ranked team is Arizona State at 15, who currently sit in the field as the 12-seed by being the fifth-highest ranked conference champion.
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That is not the position the league wants to find itself in. Every team near the top of the conference faces a very loseable rivalry week game (except probably Colorado). BYU plays a suddenly resurgent Houston team with a defense capable of exposing their streaky offense; Iowa State plays a Kansas State team that can score in bunches, who is capable of beating anyone; Arizona State plays arch rival Arizona, who would love nothing more than to play spoiler to the Sun Devils' improbable playoff run. Even if they survive that, one of these teams will be playing another one of these teams in the conference title game, making it increasingly likely that the conference has a three-loss champion.
Remember, the auto-bids go to the five highest ranked conference champions, regardless of which conferences those five are. So, theoretically, the Big 12 could see their bid snatched up by someone like, say, The American Athletic Conference, because...
TULANE IS LURKING
For all the hype about Ashton Jeanty and Boise State, the team who are most likely to play spoilers in the Playoff are located in New Orleans.
Under head coach Jon Sumrall, the Tulane Green Wave are ranked 17th and have looked like the best Group of Five team in the country for the vast majority of the season. A couple of early losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma may have slightly derailed the hype train for the Green Wave, but they've destroyed any and all comers since then. Running back Makhi Hughes is an absolute stud, and freshman quarterback Darian Mensah looks like a star in the making. They're the best team in the AAC, and assuming they handle Memphis and Army, they'll have a very strong case to make the field.
You may recall Tulane from a couple years ago, when they knocked off a full-strength USC team in the Cotton Bowl. This team has the same kind of spoiler potential, and if the Big 12 wobbles even a little down the stretch, expect them to be the team no one wants to face in the Playoff.
THE SEC IS A MESS
After the massive pile-up at the top of the SEC last week, things are tight, and the rankings bear that out. With just three teams currently in the field, and three-loss Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina all knocking on the door, the best conference in the land also has the widest possible variance of outcomes, with virtually every team facing a game they likely want no part of.
No. 2 Texas are traveling to College Station to try and beat no. 20 Texas A&M at what will be a truly delirious Kyle Field, with a rabid Aggie fan base eager to knock big brother down a peg or three. No. 7 Georgia are playing the best Georgia Tech team in several years, who are fully capable of dragging the Bulldogs into the mud and knocking them out of the Playoff field for good. No. 8 Tennessee are playing what might be the best Vanderbilt team since before the Great Depression, led by their giant-killing quarterback Diego Pavia. A loss for any of those teams opens the door for the three-loss crowd right behind them to sneak into the field, but none of those schools have an easy week, either.
Alabama is reeling after getting their brakes beaten off by Oklahoma, and is playing an Auburn team that may have figured some things out at last on offense. Ole Miss is playing cellar dwellers Mississippi State, but anyone who knows anything about football knows that the only rule in the Egg Bowl is to expect chaos.
South Carolina have the chance to play their way into the field, facing number 12 Clemson in a game neither fan base is excited for. The Gamecocks' big play offense could prove to be the final nail in the Tigers' coffin, but South Carolina remains a chaotic force who could absolutely crumble in Death Valley.
With so many big games this weekend, the SEC's playoff hopes could look drastically different come Sunday morning.
CAN BOISE STATE HOLD ON?
For most of the season, Boise State have been seen as the de facto Group of 5 representative in the Playoff. Led by likely Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos are 10-1, with their singular loss coming in a close game to Oregon early in the season.
A closer inspection, though, shows that the wheels might be starting to come off in Boise. While Jeanty remains an absolute force of nature, the Broncos have narrowly escaped two of their last three games, beating Nevada by seven, and scraping past a bad Wyoming team last week. The passing game struggles to have an impact, leading to stalled drives that keep opponents in games.
Things don't get any easier for the Broncos in their last two games. Oregon State have the defense to contain Jeanty (as much as he can be contained at this point), while a potential title game rematch with UNLV would pose the biggest threat to Boise's playoff run that they've faced. And sitting ranked 11th in the polls means that the slightest wobble equals big trouble in Idaho.
The stakes are clear: win, and you're in. Lose one or the other, though, and the Broncos will likely find themselves on the outside looking in.
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