College Football Playoff Semifinal 2025: Previewing Texas vs. Ohio State

It took most of the season, but two games into the newly-extended College Football Playoff, the Ohio State Buckeyes look like the team everyone thought they should be this season.

The Buckeyes have what is believed to be the most expensive roster in all of football; they're deep and talented everywhere it counts, but still seemed to play down to opponents early in the season.

Not so much now; after two straight blowout wins, Ohio State are seen as the clear-cut title favorite. But they face what is essentially a road game against a Texas team who have yet to lose this season to anyone other than Georgia. Will the Buckeyes fulfill their destiny? Or will Texas pull the rug out from under them and steal a win here? Let's break it down.

Tale of the Tape: The Longhorns and Buckeyes have played all of thrice in their long, prestigious histories, and all of them came in the Jim Tressel and Mack Brown eras. from 2005 till 2009, the two teams played three times, a home-and-home series that they split, and in 2009 when Texas beat the Buckeyes 24-21 in the Fiesta Bowl.

Ohio State's Offense: The Buckeyes should have the best passing game in all of college football. Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka are both NFL-caliber wideouts, and slowing down both of them is a herculean task that borders on impossible for most teams. When the Buckeyes decide they're going to throw on you, it's incredibly hard to stop them.

The run game ranks fifth in EPA as well; Trayveon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins have been virtually identical this season, racking up a combined 1,849 yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground.

The singular weaknesses in this team are Will Howard and the offensive line. Howard is a capable college quarterback when he's got the time to make his reads. Get him under pressure, and he has a knack for coughing up the football and making mistakes. And the Buckeyes' offensive line is still a bit of a patch job; they're still solid, but vulnerable against good teams up front. Force the Buckeyes into obvious pass plays, and you can get Howard into trouble.

Texas' Offense: The Longhorns are a fascinating team offensively. They've put up good numbers against decent teams, but their consistency has been all over the map.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian has shown a knack for scheming up success; you know he'll have a plan and you know he'll get guys open.

Against inferior teams, the Longhorns can run the ball as well as any team in the country, hence why they rank ninth in EPA in that regard. But against good teams, Texas has struggled to gain purchase on the ground. They ran for just 53 yards against Arizona State, and had to rely on Quinn Ewers' arm to win the game.

While Ewers certainly has arm talent, he's hardly a perfect quarterback. He has a tendency to loft deep balls, and doesn't really drive them in the way you'd want to see from a quarterback of his caliber. Isaiah Bond has struggled with consistency this season, and while Matthew Golden has been good, he's not exactly an elite talent. The Sun Devils also showed you can get after Ewers with a creative blitz package, thanks to a patchwork offensive line. Sarkisian loves to use the screen and short passing game as an extension of the run game, and that figures to be the case in this one as well.

Ohio State's Defense: The Buckeyes have one of the absolute best defenses in all of college football, without any real holes or issues that can be exploited. Their corners are as good as anyone in football, and their front seven are balanced and skilled at shutting down both the run and the pass. The only team who was really able to crack the code against Ohio State's defense this season was Oregon in the regular season, and we saw how that went for the Ducks in the playoff rematch. They have the talent to match up with any wideouts in the country, which frees up more space to get to the quarterback. For all of the criticism of the offense, the defense has been lights out all year long.

Texas' Defense: This is the singular area where the Longhorns may have an edge in this game. Their defensive line is among the best in football, and Texas ranks third in EPA against the pass. The Longhorns can slow you down through the air, but their run defense also ranks in the top 10 in EPA as well. Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. has 16 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks on the year, and defensive lineman Colin Simmons has another 9 sacks. They can get after the passer, and get penetration against good offensive lines.

Cornerbacks Andrew Mukuba and Jahde Barron have both been stellar all year long, and they're going to need to deliver a career performance in this one.

Paths to Victory: For Texas, it comes down to your defense. Force Howard into making bad decisions, and try and convince the Buckeyes to play a more run-focused style of play. Don't let them get their noses in front, because if they're able to get the pass game going, it's going to go incredibly poorly. The Longhorns' offense has sputtered against good defenses, so they're going to need some short fields to score. Finish drives; settling for field goals against this Ohio State team is a recipe for disaster, given how quickly the Buckeyes put up points. Get them into a rock fight, and as Michigan showed us, you have a chance.

For Ohio State, if they play like they have the last two weeks, this is going to be over quickly and it's going to get ugly. Get Smith and Egbuka going early, get Howard some time in the pocket, and you'll be in great shape. Don't let head coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly get drawn into a game where they're desperate to establish the run. You have a supercar on offense, use the supercar and score points. Don't beat yourself, and you'll be one step closer to a national title.

The Verdict: Given Texas' offensive inconsistencies, it's really hard to see a path to victory for the Longhorns. Ohio State has looked the part of a fully armed and operational Death Star the last two weeks, and Texas doesn't have the skills to hit the exhaust port to blow the whole thing up. There's a very precise path to victory for the Longhorns, but I just don't think it happens. Look for Ohio State to win this one comfortably.

Home/CFB

College Football Playoff Semifinal 2025: Previewing Cotton Bowl between Texas and Ohio State

By Sam Westmoreland | Jan 7, 2025