College Football Playoff Semifinal 2025: previewing Penn State vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame and Penn State have traveled shockingly similar paths to reach this year's College Football Playoff semifinal.

Both are amongst the sports blue blood class of schools, both have struggled to find any kind of national success in recent decades, and both enter with a fan base eager to get back to the highest echelon of the sport. They play very similar types of football, but achieve it in very different ways, one from necessity, the other likely due to their head coach's stylistic preference.

But which of these long-suffering elite programs will take the next step toward the national title they so desperately crave, and move from bridesmaid to the star of the show? Let's break it down.

The Tale of the Tape: This series could not be more historically even. The Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish have played 19 times prior to this matchup, and the lifetime record is split right down the middle. Nine wins apiece, and a scoreless tie in 1925. Granted, most of these matchups came in the 1980s, but even then, neither team has ever really controlled it in any meaningful way. They haven't met since 2007, when a Joe Pateno-coached Nittany Lions side thumped the Charlie Weis-led Irish 31-10 in Happy Valley.

Penn State's Offense: The Nittany Lions have one of the more unique offensive systems in the sport, thanks to coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. They run unique sets and schemes, using motion and smoke and mirrors to mask what they're trying to do. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton have split carries practically down the middle, and have nearly identical stat lines as a result (1,026 yards and eight TDs for Allen and 1,015 rushing yards and nine TDs for Singleton, who also has more receiving yards than Allen does). Penn State likes to run, and they do it incredibly well.

In the passing game, the biggest name on the field is tight end Tyler Warren. He has become the do-everything engine of Penn State's offense, having thrown, caught, and run for touchdowns this season. He is a matchup nightmare, in the unique way that athletic tight ends tend to be; too big for corners and safeties to cover, too fast for linebackers to keep up with.

Outside of Warren, quarterback Drew Allar has been good bordering on great this season. He's thrown for 3,172 yards and 24 touchdowns to just seven picks in 15 games, and has the kind of arm that makes NFL scouts perk up and get excited like a dog who just heard the word "park." He's not the most mobile of quarterbacks, but can get up and go when asked. As for the wide receivers... well, no team is perfect. Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans have been inconsistent all season, and neither Liam Clifford nor Julian Fleming really strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses.

This is a team that plays safe, smart controlled football, for all the trickery Kotelnicki breaks out. They might occasionally crack out a deep ball, but James Franklin and the Nittany Lions are hardly a high-octane outfit.

Notre Dame's Offense: Speaking of "hardly high octane," we have the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Irish want to do one thing, and they do that one thing incredibly well. They want to run the ball down your throat, over and over and over again.

Running back Jeremiyah Love is a big play monster, capable of ripping off chunks of yardage at a time, and when you pair him with Jadarian Price and quarterback Riley Leonard, you have an absolutely fearsome run game that has racked up over 3,000 combined yards and 42 touchdowns on the ground. The Irish don't run a triple option, but they're pretty dang close to it.

Of course, that seems to be out of necessity, because Notre Dame's passing game leaves a LOT to be desired. Leonard has struggled when asked to put the ball downfield, and threw for just 2,383 yards and 18 touchdowns on the year. Of course, Notre Dame's receivers don't really do Leonard any favors. Forget a 1,000 yard receiver; Notre Dame didn't have anyone crack 500 yards receiving on the year.

The Irish aren't trying to chuck it deep at all, either; they average just 6.9 air yards per completion, which ranks 85th in the country, and places them amongst stalwarts like Florida Atlantic, Old Dominion, and Louisiana Tech. They were even less air-based against Georgia; in the quarterfinals, Notre Dame averaged just 3.8 air yards per play.

Penn State's Defense: James Franklin and Tom Allen's unit has been one of the best in the country all season long. They sit seventh in EPA, and fourth against the run. The secondary is excellent, and they move well to the ball and prevent big plays.

However, of concern for the Nittany Lions is the status of star edge rusher Abdul Carter, who suffered a shoulder injury against Boise State. His status remains up in the air, and without him it's going to be tough to slow the Irish run game down properly. It's not that the Nittany Lions don't have guys who can produce, but Carter's ability off the edge and pursuit skills make his shoes awfully tough to fill.

Notre Dame's Defense: Speaking of best defenses in the country, Notre Dame look an awful lot like an SEC team in these playoffs, at least defensively. The Irish are fast, quick to the ball, and tackle incredibly well. They rank second in defensive EPA, and no worse than fifth against either the run or the pass.

But the Irish have injury concerns of their own; defensive lineman Rylie Mills is done for the year with a knee injury, while Howard Cross III, another key cog in the defensive front is uncertain to play in this game. If Cross can't go, the Irish's vaunted run defense will suffer a pretty significant blow.

Paths to Victory: These are two incredibly evenly matched teams, who want to control the clock and keep the opposing offense off the field as much as possible. We'll likely get some points, but I wouldn't hold your breath for a shootout.

For Penn State, getting a solid lead is a good way to put yourself in position to win. The Irish aren't built to play from behind, and their reticence to throw the ball makes it much easier to dictate the flow of the game from the front. Make Leonard beat you with his arm, and this Notre Dame team becomes much more mortal than they seemed against either Indiana or Georgia. The last thing you want is to get into a clock management or close late-game situation with James Franklin engaging in a battle of the football minds with Marcus Freeman. That's a fight that's over before it starts.

For Notre Dame, the key is going to be finding a way to keep Tyler Warren contained. Limit his touches, limit his breakout plays, keep him in check. Don't let him do to you what he did to USC or even Boise, where two of his four catches were for touchdowns. Penn State has more weapons to play from behind than Notre Dame, but making them beat you over the top is key. Make them be aggressive and take real risks offensively. On offense, run the ball, and control the clock.

The Verdict: This is going to be a knockdown, dragout heavyweight fight. These teams are closely matched, and play defense-first football. If Penn State can open it up and move the ball well, they can win this, but I like the Fighting Irish to keep rolling to the national title game.

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College Football Playoff Semifinal 2025: Previewing Orange Bowl between Penn State, Notre Dame

By Sam Westmoreland | Jan 7, 2025