Cubs' subpar RSN revenues help explain tepid offseason approach: report

Why did the Chicago Cubs trade Cody Bellinger, one of their better players, to the New York Yankees for a middling reliever — and agree to pay part of his salary? And why did they do this just days after acquiring outfielder Kyle Tucker, arguably the best player available on the trade market this winter, in a blockbuster deal with the Houston Astros?

The mixed signals coming from the North Side of Chicago remain one of the more puzzling mysteries of the baseball offseason. Are the Cubs trying to get better, worse, or move sideways?

A new report from ESPN's Jesse Rogers on Tuesday might hold some answers.

According to Rogers:

"The addition of a new television network [Marquee Sports Network] in 2020 hasn't been the cash cow the team thought it would be, according to sources familiar with the situation. Meanwhile, private equity investment has ownership answering to more than just a handful of local minority investors like it did previously. The bottom line is more of a concern than ever, with some industry observers believing the Cubs won't sign a megadeal for a player before the next labor agreement is negotiated with the players after the 2026 season."
- Jesse Rogers, ESPN

Rogers notes that the Cubs' bottom-line-focused outlook will also dictate their ability to extend Tucker's contract beyond next winter, when he's eligible for free agency. Unless something changes on the business side, it's a safer bet that Tucker is strictly a one-year rental.

Bellinger might have been a rental too, had he not been sent to New York for Cody Poteet. He can opt out of his $27.5 million contract after 2025. But let's review where this attempt at payroll arbitrage left the Cubs.

Tucker is projected to make $15.8 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility, per MLB Trade Rumors. Assuming they will save about $12 million next year by swapping in Tucker and Poteet for Bellinger, the Cubs had to sacrifice All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes (three years of team control), pitcher Hayden Wesneski (five years of team control), and infield prospect Cam Smith (six years) — plus up to $5 million to pay down Bellinger's salary. Is this the sign of a healthy long-term plan, or a convoluted attempt to save a little money and win a few more games next year?

Either way, it's an odd look for a team that should be enjoying the fruits of Chicago's market size. Without an explicit opening of the books, it's hard to say what the private equity folks are looking at, either in terms of Marquee's financial outlook — an unfortunate if not foreseeable victim of cord-cutting across the cable sports landscape — or the team's other revenue streams.

Rogers' report explicitly ruled the Cubs out of the bidding war for Corbin Burnes, the best pitcher available on the major league free agent market. In hindsight, this helps explain the smaller deals Chicago made to sign veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd and catcher Carson Kelly amid a relatively quiet winter on the free-agent front.

Perhaps a strong start out of the gate, combined with strong local television ratings, can turn the Cubs into buyers at the 2025 trade deadline. For now that looks like the best-case outcome for one of MLB's most perplexing offseasons.

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