The Big Lead

Dan Campbell, Lions' 4th down aggressiveness crucial to their success

By Sam Westmoreland

Nov 24, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Detroit Lions head football coach Dan Campbell smiles on the sidelines before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
Nov 24, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Detroit Lions head football coach Dan Campbell smiles on the sidelines before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images / Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
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The Detroit Lions have been the best team in the NFL this season, and their fourth down aggressiveness is a big reason why.

CBS Sports broke down just how good Detroit has been:

For those who don't want to click through: Detroit is the only team in the last 30 years to average one fourth down conversion per game in four straight seasons, they're the only team since 2000 to go for it on fourth down of a tie game inside their opponent's 30-yard line, and they lead the NFL in percentage of fourth downs gone for, conversions of fourth downs, and expected points added from their fourth down decisions.

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The Lions have built one of the best, most explosive offenses in the NFL this season, and their fourth-down aggressiveness is a big reason why. Expecting to go for fourth downs on a routine basis changes the calculus involved in planning for first through third downs, and allows you to be significantly more aggressive on earlier plays, because you don't need to worry about getting trapped in a third-and-long situation where you have to make up all the yards in a single play.

Extending those drives wears opposing defenses out; even when they don't result in points directly, the indirect impact of forcing defenses to plan as though you're going to go for it on fourth down can wear on them over the course of a game. It also gives your own defense more chance to get rested and ready for the next series, and with the aggressive blitz and man-to-man coverage schemes the Lions like to employ, that rest can be crucial.

Of course, the aggressiveness can be a double-edged sword; a failed fourth-down conversion gives your opponent the ball back with better field position than a simple punt would, and can swing the momentum of a game profoundly towards your opponent.

But, for a team like the Lions, the aggressiveness has clearly worked, as it's helped make them one of the most fun teams to watch in the NFL.

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