How LSU's Brian Kelly era has gone so wrong, and whether they can salvage the future

When LSU hired Brian Kelly away from Notre Dame ahead of the 2022 season, the move was met with skepticism across the college football universe. The move may have made sense to some, for most it seemed an odd match, but one the Tigers hoped could bring them back to the forefront of the college football landscape.

After almost three seasons, the skeptics appear to have been right all along. After a promising start to the 2024 season, the Bayou Bengals have fallen apart down the stretch, dropping three straight games and looking like a team about ready to quit on their beleaguered head coach. The defense looks lost, the offense has lost its punch, and Kelly has found new shades of red to turn while screaming at officials, players and probably water coolers filled with the wrong color Gatorade.

But how did we get here? Just how bad are things in Baton Rouge, and how did it all go wrong for Kelly?

The simple answer is: it was never going to go any other way.

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At a cursory glance, Kelly seemed like a good choice; the former Cincinnati coach had rebuilt the Fighting Irish into, if not a true national power, then a power who was back to national relevance after a decade of decline under Ty Willingham and Charlie Weis. Sure, Notre Dame couldn't punch with Alabama or Georgia or Ohio State, but with LSU's superior local talent and desire to win, that shouldn't be a problem anymore, right?

But even the slightest look beneath reveals that Kelly was truly an odd fit for the Tigers from the beginning.

Kelly had a reputation for being a decent recruiter, but not a great one, and the rankings during his tenure bear that out. The Irish cracked the top 10 recruiting classes five times between 2011 and 2021 (not counting his first year in charge, or the year he left), and their average position in the rankings was 12th. His best class came in 2013, when they had the fifth-best recruiting class in the country; outside of that, Kelly never finished better than ninth in recruiting.

LSU, on the other hand, was as consistent a top 10 program in recruiting as you'd find. They averaged the sixth-best recruiting class in the country during that time, and finished outside of the top classes in the country just twice, in 2012 and 2018. In fact, LSU had more top five recruiting classes during Kelly's Notre Dame tenure than Kelly had top 10 classes.

But surely at a place like LSU, surrounded by the fertile prospect lands of Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi, along with being the biggest fish in a very fertile pond, Kelly could up his game and land the couple of bigger fish needed to go from good recruiter to one at LSU's level, right?

At the very least, he's doing what he's supposed to at LSU. Kelly has delivered two top 10 classes in his three years in Baton Rouge, and currently has the sixth-best class in the country for next season, which is right in line with their average class before he arrived. But even that kind of performance on the recruiting trail doesn't feel great; LSU lost out on their prized recruit, quarterback Bryce Underwood, who flipped his commitment to Michigan on Thursday.

But Kelly's real issues go beyond the recruiting trail; the fact of the matter is, he's just not winning enough games. There's an unwritten rule at LSU that every coach is expected to deliver a national title. That's the baseline of expectation for Tigers fans. And the fact is, Kelly hasn't shown he's a good enough coach to get them close to that mountaintop yet.

Not in 2022, when LSU shocked the world by knocking off number seven Ole Miss and number six Alabama in back-to-back weeks. No, that Tiger team lost its shot at a Playoff berth with losses to Florida State and a blowout loss to Tennessee at home, then closed the season with a loss to Texas A&M on the road and Georgia in the SEC title game. Those Tigers went 10-4.

Not in 2023, when a transcendant Jayden Daniels was making magic every week en route to the Heisman Trophy. That LSU team was betrayed by a defense that couldn't stop anyone, and lost to Florida State, OIe Miss, and Alabama and didn't sniff the SEC title game.

this year's team might be the worst one yet. Once again, Kelly's team lost the season opener, this time to an incredibly disappointing USC squad who are currently fighting to get into bowl eligibility. They then ripped off six straight wins behind quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who looked the part of a worthy successor to Daniels throwing the ball. But the last three weeks have been a disaster; blowout losses to Texas A&M and a post-Nick Saban Alabama team might've been excused were it not for a disaster of a loss to a mediocre Florida team last week, and during the game Kelly could be seen screaming at wide receiver Chris Hilton, and being called out by wideout Kyren Lacy during the game.

The defense has once again fallen apart; they seem incapable of containing any quarterback on the ground, and are prone to coughing up big plays through the air. And this is with new defensive coordinator Blake Baker, who was supposed to fix the massive defensive leaks sprung under much-maligned predecessor Matt House.

And things could get worse still; Vanderbilt and their giant-killer quarterback Diego Pavia come to Tiger Stadium this weekend, and a loss to the perennial SEC doormat (even in a historically good season for the Commodores) could see Kelly run out of town before he can right the ship.

It's unlikely Kelly goes anywhere this offseason; his buyout is north of $60 million, per Yahoo Sports. That's a steep price to pay for any school, but it's safe to say that what little goodwill Kelly may have had with the fan base is gone. They're going to expect results, and they're going to expect them soon. And in the modern era, when players are actually making money and can leave, losing a locker room the way Kelly seems to have lost it in the last week or two can have a catastrophic effect on keeping players.

The knock on Kelly at Notre Dame was that while he got the Irish from decent to good, he couldn't get them from good to great. A lot of those rumblings were chalked up to how difficult it was to recruit to South Bend, and the academic standards at the school. It made it tough to get those elite athletes you needed to punch with Alabama and Georgia, right?

Well, Kelly's at a school now that gets those athletes, that has the NIL budget and the local talent to be great. They can punch with Alabama, and Georgia, and Texas, and the other blue bloods. But much like at Notre Dame, Kelly's LSU teams are good, but they're far from great. So maybe the problem wasn't the Irish. Maybe the problem is that the guy who faked a southern accent in his introduction to students at an LSU basketball game just isn't good enough to give LSU fans what they expect: a national title. And it's not clear at this point whether that problem is going to get any better anytime soon.

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