March Madness 2025: Picking every 1st round Midwest Region matchup

The Midwest region features what might be the most consistent team of the last five years, the Houston Cougars.

Head coach Kelvin Sampson has built a powerhouse in Texas, and the Cougars earned their third straight number one seed in this year's tournament. But the draw did them no favors. Traditional powers Kentucky, Gonzaga, UCLA, and Purdue lurk in the lower seeds, while ascendant teams like Tennessee and Clemson will also pose stiff tests.

Will the Cougars make their second Final Four appearance in the last five seasons under Sampson? Or will they stumble again? Let's break it down.

(11) Texas vs. (11) Xavier: What we have in this play-in matchup is a pair of effective, if divergent offensive styles. The Longhorns have some of the better shot-makers in the tournament, led by potential lottery pick Tre Johnson. Texas has a variety of high-talent scorers, and can pick off better teams as a result. But the Longhorns have struggled with consistency, and their reliance on contested shots falling is a recipe for danger.

They'll get a tough test from one of the hottest teams in the Tournament, the Xavier Musketeers. Sean Miller's team put it together from February on, and the offense is firing on all cylinders. Pay no mind to that very porous defense, though.

Pick: Xavier. Relying on hitting contested shots isn't a recipe for a deep March run, and it's hard to top momentum when you're a team like Xavier. They could easily ride the hot hand to multiple wins before the dust settles.

(1) Houston vs. (16) SIU Edwardsville: Our first contest at the top of the bracket is a good old fashioned Cougar battle, as Southern Illinois Edwardsville makes their debut in the Dance. SIUE is a tough defensive team, but they actively struggle scoring at times. And by "at times" I mean "all the time."

That's a problem against Houston, who is one of the most tenacious defending teams in the country. They're incredibly athletic and shoot the absolute lights out from three. LJ Cryer is a legitimate shot-maker, and they have scoring threats at every position, and on the bench. This team is deep and athletic, and it's going to take more than what SIUE has to scare them.

Pick: Houston. SIUE is a great story making their first-ever tournament, but their fellow Cougars are a much, much bigger threat.

(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Georgia: Another same mascot matchup, this one sees the Bulldogs of Gonzaga and Georgia squaring off. This is the lowest seed Gonzaga has had since 2015-16, and the reasons are fairly obvious: they didn't beat anybody of consequence, and their defense is actively suspect. The offense, led by Graham Ike and Khalif Battle, can score on pretty much anyone. The defense, while solid, struggles against teams who can stretch the floor, because of their insistence on playing two bigs.

On the flip side, Georgia has a ton of potential, courtesy of superstar freshman Asa Newell. The 6'11" big man is as good as any player in the tournament, and as we've seen time and time again, stars matter in March. But Georgia coughs the ball up a lot, and the offense has a tendency to go cold. That's a recipe for big problems in the Dance.

Pick: Gonzaga. When all else fails, take the more consistent offensive team, and that's Gonzaga. Their Sweet 16 streak might end this year but I can't see them losing to a maddeningly inconsistent Georgia squad in round 1.

(5) Clemson vs. (12) McNeese State: Clemson might be one of the most unappreciated teams in college basketball right now. They are elite offensively, with four players averaging double figures and six guys averaging at least five points per game. Guard Chase Hunter is a stellar scorer, while big man Ian Schieffelin has proven to be a fantastic two-way player. Sure, the Tigers lack star power, but they don't have any real holes, which is a big plus come March.

They face a McNeese team that is somewhat hindered offensively without star guard Alyn Breed in the lineup. The Cowboys are tenacious defensively, but that aggression can lead to some easy baskets against teams who are careful with the ball. Will Wade has addressed concerns around athleticism, but without Breed, they lack the go-to scorer you need in the clutch.

Pick: Clemson. Against any of the other five seeds in this tournament, McNeese would be a logical upset pick. But the Tigers have the skills to match up with the Cowboys and keep them from capitalizing on too many turnovers, and I think they dodge the upset bug this year in a close one.

(4) Purdue vs. (13) High Point: This is not the Purdue team of years past. Gone is the dominant defense, replaced by a team that is incredibly vulnerable inside. Gone is the lack of shooting, replaced by superstar point guard Braden Smith and sharpshooter Fletcher Loyer. This is a highly efficient offensive team who cannot stop anyone in the paint.

They're facing one of the most fascinating low-majors in the tournament in High Point. The Panthers have a cavalcade of high-major recruits who transferred down, or players who probably should have transferred up and stayed put instead. They're deep, athletic, and talented, featuring a top 25 offense and have more weapons than you'd expect from a low-major team. The only problem? Alan Huss' team hasn't played anyone. And I mean ANYONE; High Point hasn't played a single high-major team this season. What happens when someone matches their athleticism?

Pick: Purdue. When a team hasn't been tested by any high-major teams, that's a major red flag. And while High Point has plenty of talent, that lack of test is going to cost them here, although an upset is well within the range of possibility.

(6) Illinois vs. (11) Xavier: The Illinois Illini are one of the widest variance teams in the field this year. The talent is undeniable; Kasperas Jakucionis and Will Riley lead a supremely talented team with a deep bench capable of beating pretty much anyone when they're on. But that's the problem; Illinois can't seem to sustain any kind of momentum; they are maddeningly, frustratingly inconsistent. They have a tendency to settle for jumpers instead of driving, and it's led to some messy losses.

We know what Xavier is, but which Illini team will show up? The one who pushed number one Tennessee to the brink and blew the doors off Oregon on the road? Or the one who got their own doors blown off by Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament?

Pick: Xavier in a closely-contested shootout. The Musketeers have the offense to hang with the Illini, and as one of basketball's hottest teams right now, they figure to be a tough out.

(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Troy: In their first season under new head coach Mark Pope, the Kentucky Wildcats are one of the most fun teams in all of college basketball. Their high-octane offense puts up points on pretty much everyone, and when they're clicking, this team is virtually unbeatable. The defense is shaky, but it's been good enough for the last month-plus, and their injuries are a major issue, but this team is incredibly dangerous even in its current battered form.

They face a Troy Trojans team that lives and dies via its tenacious defense; they don't concede a lot of easy buckets, and they rebound incredibly well. The Trojans are reliant on the three-ball, but they don't really knock them down all that consistently, but if their guards catch fire, this could be a very dangerous team.

Pick: Kentucky. Even in their current battered state, the Wildcats are incredibly versatile and talented, and have the size to hang with Troy in the paint. Kentucky's injury situation might catch up to them, but it won't be in this one.

(7) UCLA vs. (10) Utah State: I hope you like points, because both the Bruins and Aggies can score in bunches. UCLA's offense has been red-hot behind the arc, and the trio of Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr. and Skyy Clark make them a legitimate outside shooting threat. The defense is another story; they give up too many easy buckets, and their shaky free throw shooting feels like it could come back to bite them hard at some point.

Utah State can fill it up, too, and much like UCLA, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Because they run a hybrid 2-3 and 1-1-3, they're vulnerable to teams who shoot well, but they do have a knack for forcing turnovers, which could work in their favor here.

Pick: UCLA. The Aggies have the scoring punch to keep this close, but their vulnerability to teams who knock down threes is going to burn them here. An upset is possible, but that outside weakness is an issue against a Bruins team that can knock them down.

(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Wofford: The Tennessee Volunteers are all about one thing: defense. They want to grind you down and force you into bad shots, bad decisions, and mistakes they can capitalize on. The Vols have a bit more scoring punch than we've seen in years past, courtesy of Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler, but don't confuse them with a good offensive team. They still lay a shocking number of bricks for as good as they are.

Meanwhile Wofford's offense is predicated on threes, and lots of them. The Terriers are going to beat you from the outside in, led by sharpshooting guard Corey Tripp and big man Kyle Filewich. Filewich is crucial to what Wofford wants to do; his post distribution skills are the reason their spread offense works and he keeps defenses honest enough to keep the threes raining down.

Pick: Tennessee, in a closer game than you'd expect, thanks to the Terriers' ability to knock down threes and the Vols' occasional offensive ineptitude. If the Vols go ice cold and get down in this one, expect the very hostile Lexington crowd to let them hear all about it.

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