March Madness 2025: Picking every game in South Region 1st round

The South Region in this year's NCAA men's basketball tournament is a fascinating one. While not as deep as the West, it features the number one overall seed in Auburn, and a plethora of teams who are as capable of making a deep run as they are of crashing out early.

Can Auburn live up to the hype as the nation's best team? Or will a deep field of potentially punchy lower seeds like Creighton, UC San Diego, or Yale put together a deep run and make this the most chaotic region in the field? Let's break it down.

North Carolina vs. San Diego State: The North Carolina Tar Heels were the most controversial pick in this field, and with good reason. Hubert Davis' team had just one Q1 victory in 13 tries, and probably should have been an NIT team based on their paper profile. The offense is one of the best in college basketball, and they're absolutely lethal in transition. The defense is an absolute mess, though; they allow opponents to shoot 39.3 percent from three, and lack size in the post.

At the other end of the spectrum, the San Diego State Aztecs have an elite defense, and an inconsistent offense. The Aztecs have some high-profile wins on the year, beating Creighton and Houston back in November. If the offense is functional, this is a tough team to beat. Pick: San Diego State

Alabama State vs. St. Francis: The Alabama State Hornets are driven by one player: CJ Hines. When Hines is clicking, as he was in the SWAC Tournament, the Hornets are dangerous. When he's not, things get ugly. Meanwhile, the Red Flash of St. Francis are dancing for the first time in 26 years, and it took a miraculous NEC Tournament run to get this team with a losing record back to the dance. Pick: Alabama State

(1) Auburn vs. (16) Alabama State: The Auburn Tigers have everything you could want from a potential national title pick. They're talented, deep, and experienced. Center Johni Broome is a national player of the year front-runner, but Bruce Pearl's team has at least five players capable of going off on a given day. Their defense ranks as one of the best in the country, and they can play a variety of different styles. There are some worries about emotional maturity with the Tigers, but it shouldn't be an issue here. Pick: Auburn

(8) Louisville vs. (9) Creighton: This bird battle figures to be an epic one between two teams who are probably slightly underseeded in this field. The Louisville Cardinals are one of the best turnaround stories in the country, coming from 12 combined wins the last two seasons to looking like a top-10 team at times this season. Chucky Hepburn is one of the best guards in the country, and a clutch-time shot maker supreme.

However, if there's a team designed to exploit Louisville's weaknesses, it's Creighton. The Blue Jays run an inside-out offense through center Ryan Kalkbrenner. He's big and skilled, and creates matchup nightmares for teams. Creighton's 3-pointers haven't been falling of late, but with Louisville's lack of size on the interior, they may not need to. This figures to be a fascinating stylistic clash, and a tough one to pick. Pick: Louisville. Clutch guard play ultimately makes the difference in March, and Hepburn's been as hot as any player in the country of late.

(5) Michigan vs. (12) UC San Diego: This is one of the more appealing 5 vs. 12 upset picks in this year's bracket, but it's far from a sure thing. Michigan has been one of the best teams in the country in close games this season, and Dusty May's team has excelled with center Vladislav Golden as the focal point. That size should give the upset-minded Tritons some issues, but UCSD is a particularly nasty matchup for the Wolverines, as well.

The Tritons excel at forcing turnovers, which Michigan is particularly prone to coughing up, and they shoot incredibly well from three. If those shots are falling, and if they're forcing Michigan into making mistakes, this team could end the Wolverines' season early.

Pick: UC San Diego. The Tritons are fun, balanced, and can shoot the lights out. That's a recipe for a tournament Cinderella. Whoever wins this game should absolutely be considered a potential Elite Eight dark horse.

(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Yale: The Ivy League champs are always a popular Cinderella pick, and they're almost always a tough out. This year will be no exception; Yale is the same team they were last year when they knocked off Auburn; dominant defensively, efficient offensively, and loaded with veteran guys who have been on this stage before.

That said, this figures to be a tough matchup. Texas A&M is big and physical, and for all of Yale's tenacity, they lack the size to hang. The Aggies want to beat you up, and while Yale's likely up for the fight, I don't know if they have the ability to keep up. The Bulldogs' defense gives them a legitimate chance, though, and if the Aggies' guards can't hit shots, there's always a chance.

Pick: Texas A&M. Guards Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps are both elite shotmakers, even if they're volume shooters, and the Aggies' size and physicality is tough to match. No Cinderella slipper for the Bulldogs this year.

(6) Ole Miss vs. (11) San Diego State: A fascinating clash of styles. The Aztecs play stellar defense, but Ole Miss has one of the best, most explosive offenses in the country. They're aggressive and can knock down shots from pretty much anywhere on the court. They press defensively, and are going to try and make you make mistakes, which they can and will turn into more points.

The Rebels are small, incredibly small, but I don't know that the Aztecs are the team to capitalize on that, given their own heavy reliance on guards.

Pick: Ole Miss. The Rebels match up well with the Aztecs, and I don't think San Diego State has the scoring punch to keep up with them.

(3) Iowa State vs. (14) Lipscomb: Under normal circumstances, a team like Iowa State would be dreaming of a Final Four run, and it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility. But without Keshon Gilbert down the stretch, the Cyclones looked awfully mortal. They struggled with turnovers and outside shooting, and made a shockingly early Big 12 tournament exit.

That could be a problem against Lipscomb, who excel at forcing turnovers, and don't beat themselves. The Bison are disciplined and solid defensively, and Atlantic Sun player of the year Jacob Ognacevic is the kind of player who can carry a low-major team to a win.

Pick: Iowa State. I don't see the Cyclones making a deep run without Gilbert, but it's hard to see a team this good falling to Lipscomb this early.

(7) Marquette vs. (10) New Mexico: The Marquette Golden Eagles were one of basketball's hottest teams in November and December, but they've tailed off down the stretch. They play aggressive, high-pressure defense under Shaka Smart, and guard Kam Jones looked like one of the best players in the sport for much of the first half of the season.

They'll be facing pressure of their own from New Mexico, who rank as one of the fastest paced teams in the tournament. Head coach Richard Pitino has built a chaotic, but talented team capable of locking down opponents, and, when the offense is clicking, putting up plenty of points. But consistency is not really part of the Lobos' game; they're as likely to crash out when shots aren't falling as they are to take down a top team. Expect lots of pace, and potentially lots of points in this one.

Pick: Marquette. As much fun as New Mexico is, I don't think they have an answer for Jones, who figures to be capable of putting on a real show.

(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Bryant: Stop me if you've heard this one before: a Tom Izzo team is playing its best basketball coming into March Madness. The Spartans are a relentless defensive team capable of shutting down even the most high-powered offenses, but they cannot shoot worth a lick.

They could actually face a tough test in this one from Bryant, who have the size, athleticism and shooting touch you'd typically expect to find at a much larger program. If the Spartans go cold, this is a team with all the capability of pulling a massive upset.

Pick: Michigan State. The Spartans have the depth to lock down the Bulldogs, but don't expect this to be a laugher. Bryant is fully capable of springing the shocker here if Michigan State can't hang onto the ball.

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