March Madness 2025: Picking every game in the East Region 1st round

The East region has the potential to be the most chaotic in this year's tournament. With a truly elite team at the top, and a fair number of Cinderella candidates at the bottom, there are any number of ways this bracket could shake out, and none of them would be all that surprising. We could see all chalk, as top seeds Duke, Alabama, Wisconsin, and Arizona play like the top teams they've been this year. Or, we could see chaos, as a punchy collection of teams like Liberty, Montana, VCU, and Akron all have the potential to knock off talented, but flawed superior seeds.

How will things shake out? Let's break it down.

(16) American vs. (16) Mount St. Mary's: If you want to watch two low-major, defense-first teams grind each other into dust, this is the game for you. Both the American Eagles and Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers are slow-paced, grinding teams who try to beat you by denying you the ability to get to the rim and forcing you to take tough shots. American has better shooting on their roster, so they're the pick, but expect one of those 55-51 slogs we've seen every once in a while in Dayton. Pick: American

(1) Duke vs. (16) American: The big question for Duke coming into this tournament is the health of superstar big man Cooper Flagg. If his ankle is okay and he can go, this team is primed for a deep run. If it's not, or he's hindered at all, things coulkd get messy for Duke. This is still a good, talented team with a fantastic defense and potentially explosive offense, but Flagg's presence takes them to another level.

Pick: Duke. With or without Flagg in this one, the Blue Devils should be just fine against the play-in winner.

(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Baylor: A classic case of talls vs. smalls. Mississippi State is big basically everywhere; they have size in the backcourt and in the post, and they use that to their advantage on the offensive glass. As a result, they can score with anyone, but their aggressive defensive style makes them vulnerable to teams who can shoot.

On the flip side, we have Baylor, a team with just one rotation player taller than 6'7" in their rotation. The Bears play high-octane, high-speed basketball, but that lack of size makes it tough to match up defensively. Expect this to be a chaotic barnburner of a game with points everywhere.

Pick: Mississippi State. The Bulldogs can score, and Baylor has really struggled when teams can match their punching power. MSU may not make a deep run, because Duke awaits, but the Bulldogs can absolutely handle the Bears.

(5) Oregon vs. (12) Liberty: Everything about this matchup is a massive red flag for the Ducks. Oregon can fill up the bucket, but their defense has been nothing short of ghastly, especially down the stretch. They give up too many soft jumpers, and they've seen their own shooting percentage dip in recent weeks.

Unfortunately for the Ducks, Liberty is exactly the last team you want to see when you're having defensive issues. They knock down 3s at almost a 40 percent clip, and attempt 3s on 48 percent of their possessions, while having the size to bang bodies in the post if necessary. Giving this team open looks from anywhere is a bad idea, and unfortunately for Oregon, they seem to specialize in doing exactly that of late. Beware the Ducks in March.

Pick: Liberty. The Flames are the worst possible matchup for a team like Oregon, and if they get hot this could get ugly.

(4) Arizona vs. (13) Akron: Arizona is a tough team to parse this season. The talent is undeniable, and the Wildcats have looked good to great at times all season. They're versatile, and have any number of players who can beat you, from Caleb Love to Carter Bryant to Henri Veesaar and Tobe Awaka. They're lethal in transition, but something is missing from this team. They've beaten who they're supposed to, but against good teams, they often come up just short.

They face an Akron team who could knock out most any team in the tournament, provided the offense is clicking. The Zips don't have a ton of size, but they're deep and can shoot the lights out if given the chance. Combining these two teams should give us a fun, high-scoring matchup in which the words "lockdown defense" very seldom apply.

Pick: Arizona. I don't see the Wildcats making a deep run, but I think they have enough size to knock Akron out of this tournament.

(6) BYU vs. (11) VCU: This might be the best first round matchup of the entire tournament. VCU has a stunningly talented trio of guards, in Max Shulga, Phillip Russell, and Joe Bamisile. The Rams play aggressive, hard-nosed defense and have the skill offensively to hang with just about anyone. They don't have a great win on the year, but anyone who has watched this team knows they're due for one.

They'll need every bit of that defensive prowess against a BYU team who ranks as one of the top offenses in the country. The Cougars have size and athleticism, and the kind of depth and versatility to play any number of styles with the ball in their hands. Just don't ask them to play defense, and you're fine.

Pick: BYU in a squeaker. The Cougars' superior offense will prevail here, but it's going to be a heavyweight bout.

(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Montana: The resurgent Wisconsin Badgers have to be considered a Tournament dark horse, playing a style that is decidedly un-Badger-y. Wisconsin has picked up the pace and scores at a solid clip, relying on guards John Blackwell and John Tonje to score consistently. But their bigs, led by Noah Winter, are also solid, reliable, if less explosive scorers. They're a little soft defensively, but nothing to sneeze at.

That size could prove problematic for a Montana team that is explosive, but small. The Grizzlies can knock down threes with anyone, essential for a potential Cinderella, but they lack any kind of size to hang with larger teams.

Pick: Wisconsin. The balanced Badgers have the size to make life incredibly difficult for the undersized Grizzlies, who could've been a real Cinderella candidate with a better draw.

(7) St. Mary's vs. (10) Vanderbilt: St. Mary's has the potential to be a Sweet 16 team, but if you've watched them in the last few years, you know how that works. This is the same sort of Gaels team we usually see under Randy Bennett; absolutely stifling defensively, plodding and grinding offensively. They cannot shoot from outside even a little bit, and if they get down by more than a couple possessions, things could get messy.

Vanderbilt, on the other hand, scores points in bunches. They're aggressive, athletic, and use pressure and opportunism to generate even more scoring opportunities from the defensive end. Sure, their own perimeter defense suffers as a result of that aggressiveness, but when you can score like the Commodores do, that's less of an issue.

Pick: Vanderbilt. I love the Gaels, and what Bennett has built, but this is not a good matchup for this team. The Commodores have too much punch to be slowed down by St. Mary's, and could score multiple wins in this tournament when all is said and done.

(2) Alabama vs. (15) Robert Morris: Alabama is one of the most fun teams in the country this season, with their high-octane approach to basketball. They run and gun with the best of them, and the offense is predicated on knocking down threes and battering opposing defenses with offensive explosions that are incredibly tough to keep pace with.

Robert Morris could be a punchy foe for the Crimson Tide; led by guard Kam Woods and versatile Spanish forward Alvaro Folgueiras, the Colonials seem to have finally turned a corner in the Horizon League this season. Underestimate this team at your peril.

Pick: Alabama. Asking the Colonials to beat this Crimson Tide team is a bit much. Alabama have the speed and athleticism to make it a very long night for Robert Morris, and I can't see a credible path to the upset here.

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