March Madness 2025: Previewing Houston's Final Four chances
The Houston Cougars have been to this stage before in recent history. Four years ago, in fact. That team, led by Marcus Sasser and Quentin Grimes, rode a stifling defense to the Final Four, where the inconsistent offense finally came back to bite them in a loss to eventual champs Baylor.
Now, the Cougars seem to have answered their critics and found a consistent offensive presence, courtesy of one of the best shooting backcourts in the country. Their defense is still the best in the country, but the offense sure seems to have the kind of bite they need to make a run deeper than their program ever has.
Will Kelvin Sampson's team make their first ever title game? Or will they come up short again? Let's break it down.
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Biggest Strengths: Make no mistake, even with their offensive improvements, this is still a team who wants to smother you defensively. They're athletic and aggressive, and incredibly physical on the defensive end. They want to deny you open looks in the lane, take away passing lanes, and generally make you work for every single thing you get.
They want to force you into mistakes and hard shots, and then let big men Joseph Tugler and J'Wan Roberts clean up the mess. They've choked the life out of every opponent in the tournament thus far; only Gonzaga managed to clear 70 points against them, and both SIU Edwardsville and Tennessee were held to 50 or fewer points.
Offensively, this team is much better than any Kelvin Sampson team Houston has had so far. They are maybe the best outside shooting team in the country, and LJ Cryer, Emmanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan all shoot over 41.5 percent from three. They are the driving force of the offense, while Roberts is the power in the middle to keep defenses from extending too far.
Are they a great offensive team? Hardly. But they're plenty good enough to beat just about anyone, especially when you pair them with the Cougars' stifling defense.
Biggest Weakness: Teams who are as reliant as the Cougars are on outside shooting to get their production tend to run hot and cold, and Houston is no exception. Both the Purdue and Tennessee games turned into rock fights, as, when faced with another elite defense, things got a little squiffy offensively.
Cryer is the engine of the offense, and if he's not making shots (like he wasn't against Purdue), the Cougars are much more toothless offensively.
On top of that, Roberts has not been in good form in the last month or so of the season. He went from playing like an All-American in January and February to struggling to crack double figures in scoring in March. If he's still not himself, the Cougars' offense looks awfully one-dimensional, which makes them much easier to stop.
While the defense is great, they do allow a LOT of three-pointers. Teams don't shoot markedly well on those threes, but a good-shooting team could exploit that particular hole.
Best-Case Scenario: Houston's defense stifles all comers, and Cryer, Uzan, and Sharp continue to knock down shots with the best of them. The Cougars get big games from J'Wan Roberts, and Sampson and company bring home the first national title in program history.
Worst-Case Scenario: Duke, which can shoot the lights out from three, exploits Houston's propensity for giving up outside shots, while the Blue Devils' own elite defense locks down a Cougars offense that, while improved, still doesn't feel all THAT consistent at this stage. The Cougars find themselves heading home from the Final Four without a title game bid yet again.