The Big Lead

March Madness could really live up to its name this year with unpredictability

The NCAA Tournament playing field might be the most even it's been in a long time this March.

By Matt Reed

Potawatomi Sportsbook patrons watch the University of Wisconsin men play UCLA on Friday, March 14, 2025. The venue is open for the first time during March Madness and is expecting to be busy over the next few weeks in Milwaukee. Angela Peterson/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Potawatomi Sportsbook patrons watch the University of Wisconsin men play UCLA on Friday, March 14, 2025. The venue is open for the first time during March Madness and is expecting to be busy over the next few weeks in Milwaukee. Angela Peterson/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / Angela Peterson / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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March Madness always has a funny way of providing drama that rarely presents itself in other sporting competitions, which has made the NCAA Tournament one of the biggest spectacles in sports.

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The reality is most seasons are incredibly unpredictable, which is why the past two seasons have been very odd by March Madness standards with the Connecticut Huskies winning back-to-back championships under head coach Dan Hurley.

UCONN is back in the tournament again this year, but this time as an eight seed, and while there's certainly no way to write them off as potential winners there are far too many other top teams that could hoist the title this year.

In fact, just based one important metrics that normally decide which teams have realistic shots at winning it all in March this might be the most wide open tournament field we've had in many years.

Over 90 percent of NCAA Tournament winners over the past two decades have been efficient not only on the offensive end of the court, but especially defensively as well. The only team to finish outside the top 50 in either Kenpom efficiency statistic over the last 22 years was UCONN in 2014, however, they had 12th-best defense that season to make up for their offensive inconsistencies.

St. John's Red Storm with the Big East trophy after winning the Big East Championship against the Creighton Bluejays
Mar 15, 2025; New York, NY, USA; St. John's Red Storm with the Big East trophy after winning the Big East Championship against the Creighton Bluejays at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images / Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

This year, 11 teams are ranked inside the top 20 in adjusted offense and top 40 in adjusted defense metrics. Those teams include number one seeds like Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston but also teams ranked as low as Gonzaga - who are an eight seed entering the tournament this weekend.

It goes to show just how valuable being strong on both ends of the court really is though once March Madness rolls around because top teams like St. Johns and Michigan aren't amongst those 11 teams despite having won the Big East and Big Ten conference tournaments this past week.

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