MLB free agent spending might be down this winter for one obvious reason
A year ago, several major league free agents signed contracts for less than their projections. Multiple reports at the time indicated team executives were crying poor as they faced uncertain revenue projections, due largely to the unraveling of the cable television machine that had bankrolled professional sports payrolls for decades.
One year has passed, but the unraveling hasn't ceased.
Reporting from the General Manager Meetings in San Antonio, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch called "the ongoing collapse of the cable-sports model an uninvited elephant at this year’s meetings" that is "weighing in on this year’s market."
Goold reports that "about half" of the 30 major league teams are being impacted "in some way" by the continued potential for reduced revenues as Diamond Sports Group reorganizes in bankruptcy, and several new paid subscriber models have stepped in to fill the gap.
MLB has already taken over regular season broadcasts for the Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Colorado Rockies. Starting in 2025, it will do so for the Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers as well.
The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins are expected to stay with the recently rebranded FanDuel Sports Networks in 2025, based on court filings made by Diamond Sports Group, the bankrupt parent company of the former Bally Sports regional networks.
The Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, and St. Louis Cardinals still remain in limbo. The Texas Rangers also left Diamond but are reportedly developing their own direct-to-distributor broadcast model independent of MLB.
At least the Cardinals' hesitance to spend is understandable. They reportedly lost almost half of their viewership over the last two years with Bally. Goold quoted one anonymous industry executive who said the Cardinals are “in a real bind” because their bond with their RSN goes beyond the broadcasts to signage and space at Ballpark Village outside Busch Stadium.
The knockdown effects of multiple teams sitting out free agency are difficult to understate.
If last year was any indication, the very top of the free agent market — slugger Juan Soto, and perhaps pitcher Roki Sasaki if he leaves Japan — will get paid in line with expectations this winter. But the so-called "middle class" of the free agent market might end up signing for less money than they're hoping to get today.
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