The Big Lead

NCAA Tournament 2025: Previewing Midwest Regional's Sweet 16 March Madness matchups

By Sam Westmoreland

Mar 22, 2025; Lexington, KY, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Chaz Lanier (2) handles the ball against UCLA Bruins guard Kobe Johnson (0) during the first half in the second round of the NCAA Tournament at Rupp Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Mar 22, 2025; Lexington, KY, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Chaz Lanier (2) handles the ball against UCLA Bruins guard Kobe Johnson (0) during the first half in the second round of the NCAA Tournament at Rupp Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images / Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
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In a tournament rife with chalk in all four regions, the Midwest region is somehow the chalkiest. None of the top four seeds lost in the first two rounds, giving us the rare treat of getting a pair of stellar matchups.

In one half of the bracket, we have Purdue trying to make a push back to the Final Four under head coach Matt Painter taking on a Houston team eager to make their deepest tournament run yet.

On the other half, we have a classic SEC heavyweight tilt, between Tennessee and Kentucky teams who don't particularly like each other much. Who will come out on top in round 3? Let's break it down.

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(1) Houston vs. (4) Purdue: The Houston Cougars come into this matchup with one of the most balanced teams in the country. They shoot the absolute lights out from distance, with LJ Cryer, Emmanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan all knocking down better than 40 percent of their three pointers. Forwards J'wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler clean the glass incredibly well, and have a ferocious defensive rotation with a cavalcade of athletic wings capable of defending multiple positions. This might be the deepest team Kelvin Sampson has had with the Cougars, and they'll be a tough out.

If they have a singular weakness, it might be a lack of go-to scorer, but Cryer has filled that role wonderfully down the stretch this season.

They face a Purdue team who might be the inverse of recent Boilermaker teams. Where they've played from the inside out in recent years, they now play from the outside in. Point guard Braden Smith and fellow guard Fletcher Loyer are dynamic playmakers, and Smith runs this offense incredibly well. Forward Trey Kaufman-Renn is a dynamic scorer who can light up opposing defenses on the interior, but make no mistake: this is Smith's team, and as he goes, so go the Boilermakers.

Purdue's interior defense is their biggest concern; they lack a Zach Edey-type rim protector, and Kaufman-Renn lacks the true size needed to close down opposing bigs. They don't rebound well, especially offensively, and it's easy to punish this team down low.

Pick: Houston. For all of Purdue's talent at making shots, their defensive issues and rebounding will be their undoing against a dangerous, balanced Houston team with eyes on the Final Four.

(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Kentucky: The Tennesse Volunteers are maybe the best defensive team in the country. They want to grind you into dust, and then come down court and bury a three directly in your face. Guard Chaz Lanier has been downright thermonuclear in recent weeks, and when he's hot this team is incredibly tough to beat. Pair him with point guard extraordinaire Zakai Zeigler and you see why this Tennessee team excels at ripping the still-beating heart out of their opponents and stomping it into the floor.

Unfortunately, outside of Zeigler and Lanier, the Vols are not a good shooting team. If one or both of them are struggling to find the bucket, this offense looks ugly QUICK. They're not built to function without them hitting shots and can get their doors blown off if they get down big early.

They face a Kentucky team who sit at the exact opposite end of the spectrum. The Wildcats under new coach Mark Pope want to score, and score a LOT. They have five guys who can fill up the bucket, and they push the tempo whenever they can. Center Amari Williams works as the fulcrum of the offense, and the defense is juuuust good enough to keep the offense out in front most of the time.

Apart form the occasional defensive lapses, Kentucky's health might be a concern as well. If Lamont Butler suffers a setback with his shoulder injury, this becomes a much more mortal team.

Pick: Tennessee. The Wildcats beat the Vols twice this season, but beating a team three times in one year is incredibly tough. Rick Barnes is infamous for early tournament exits, but this could very well be the year that he gets to the Final Four and beyond.

(1) Houston vs. (2) Tennessee: The Vols are shooting the lights out right now, and their defense is good enough to slow the Cougars' outside shooting barrage. This feels like it could finally be Barnes' year to make a deep run. Pick: Tennessee.

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