NCAA Tournament 2025: Previewing the South Region's Sweet 16 March Madness matchups
As we move into what might be the chalkiest Sweet 16 the NCAA Tournament has had in a long, long time, it's important to recognize that there's still a lot to love about this particular iteration of March Madness.
Yes, there are no Cinderellas, but that means that the likelihood of getting an overmatched mid-major getting their doors absolutely blown off by a superior team is much smaller. It also means we have a higher-than-normal change of getting some absolute banger matchups in this round of the tournament.
Just look at the South region. Everywhere you look, you have quality teams who play fun basketball, whose styles will give us a fascinating idea of how each team's long-term fortunes will look this season.
So, who will come out on top? Let's break it down.
(1) Auburn vs. (5) Michigan: This has all the makings of an absolute banger. On one side, you have Auburn, the de facto best team in the country. On the other, you have a Michigan team that features one of the most fascinating rosters in the country.
Bruce Pearl's Tiger team is deep, talented, and ridiculously experienced. They have nine seniors in their rotation, and Pearl utilizes all of them to full effect. They're shockingly versatile, and can play a variety of styles and match pace with pretty much anyone in the country. They're led by senior Johni Broome, a player of the year candidate, whose skills are the engine that keeps this team humming along. Pearl surrounds him with guards who can score, from Chad Baker-Mazara to Denver Jones, and the Tigers' top four scorers other than Broome each shoot at least 37.9 percent from three.
For all their experience, this team occasionally lacks maturity, and can get themselves into foul trouble, but other than that, there aren't many weaknesses in this team.
They face an incredibly unique Michigan team, led by Florida Atlantic transfer Vladislav Goldin and fellow big man Danny Wolf. For being a bruiser-centric team, they push the pace surprisingly well, working screens and motion to get mismatches for their bigs and guards Trey Donaldson and Nimari Burnett. Wolf in particular poses matchup problems; the Yale transfer can stretch the floor and knock down threes, and passes incredibly well.
The problem for Michigan is turnovers; this is a big man-centric rotation, and their guards have a tendency to cough the ball up at inopportune times, which is part of how they let UC San Diego back into the game down the stretch in their first round matchup. The Wolverines seem to love playing in close games, but that double-edged sword is going to come back and bite them at some point soon.
Pick: Auburn, in what might be the best game of the day. Michigan does have the bigs to keep Broome under control, but their shaky guard play is something the Tigers absolutely can capitalize on. Pearl's team is good enough to exploit those weaknesses, and the close game bill figures to come due here.
(2) Michigan State vs. (6) Ole Miss: Arguably the most fascinating stylistic clash in the entire Sweet 16.
Michigan State is exactly what you've come to expect from a late-stage Tom Izzo team. They make their bones on the defensive end of the floor, where their goal is to take away any and everything easy. They get hands in faces and bodies on bodies, and they're going to work you to death. If your offense is miserable and joyless by the halftime whistle, they've accomplished their goal. They rebound incredibly well, too, particularly on the defensive end of the floor, so you'd better make that contested bucket or you're not getting another shot.
Of course, the flip side of the Izzo coin is that the Spartans cannot shoot even a little bit. Guard Jase Richardson is the only player who is remotely a consistent threat from outside, and only he and Jeremy Fears make more than 35 percent of their threes. And while their bigs are fearsome defenders, neither Coen Carr nor Jaxon Koher are particularly fearsome scorers. Get the Spartans in a shootout and they're probably running out of bullets before you do.
That's a good sign for Ole Miss; the Rebels do one thing well, and that is score. Guards Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray are your typical elite collegiate microwave scorers, and when they get hot this offense is incredibly tough to stop. Four of Ole Miss' top five scorers shoot better than 35 percent from three, and all six of their top scorers average at least 10 points per game, so this is a team that is going to push the tempo and fill it up.
That tempo applies defensively as well; the Rebels want to force turnovers and get you making mistakes. The problems for the Rebels also come defensively; they're one of the smallest teams in college basketball this season, and while Chris Beard is a defensive whiz, there's only so much you can do to cover up a size deficiency. You can push Ole Miss around inside, and they don't have a ton of people capable of pushing back. And because of their aggressiveness, they have a nasty habit of overpursuing and giving up open threes, so if you can knock them down, this team gets beatable.
Pick: Ole Miss. This is as far as I had the Spartans going, losing to Iowa State, and I don't think the Spartans can hang with the Rebels' offense, either. Their defense might keep it close, but you have to be able to knock down shots in March, and I just don't see Michigan State hitting enough of them to get the win.
(1) Auburn vs. (6) Ole Miss: These teams met twice in the regular season, and Auburn won both of them comfortably. They beat the Rebels by 10 in Oxford, and the Tigers stomped Ole Miss by 30 in the return leg. Given Ole Miss' lack of interior size, and Auburn's ability to bully teams with their own interior dominance, it's hard to see a path to victory for the Rebels in this one.
Pick: Auburn. The Tigers have looked like a Final Four team all season, and nothing the Rebels or (or the Spartans) can do changes that.
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