The Big Lead

NCAA Tournament 2025: Previewing West Regional's Sweet 16 March Madness matchups

By Sam Westmoreland

Mar 22, 2025; Providence, RI, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach John Calipari during the first half of a second round men’s NCAA Tournament game against the St. John's Red Storm at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
Mar 22, 2025; Providence, RI, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks head coach John Calipari during the first half of a second round men’s NCAA Tournament game against the St. John's Red Storm at Amica Mutual Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images / Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images
facebooktwitter

It's a testament to how dire the Cinderella situation is in this year's NCAA Tournament that lower-seed fans have had to pin their hopes on the Arkansas Razorbacks.

Let's be clear, if it weren't for the 10 next to their name, nothing about this team would be considered a Cinderella team. They're coached by one of the greatest coaches of his era, John Calipari, play in the increasingly bloated SEC (which sent 14 teams to this year's tournament), and have wins over Kentucky, Missouri and Mississippi State this season.

But, in this season of mid-major futility, the 10th seeded Razorbacks are our last remaining hope to prevent a chalky Elite Eight or Final Four. Can Calipari's team continue their run through the tournament? Or will they come up short like every other double digit seed? Let's break it down.

RELATED: 10 slam-dunk picks to be Final Four Most Outstanding Player

(1) Florida vs. (4) Maryland: This Florida team might be the most complete package of any team in the tournament this season. Guards Walter Clayton, Jr. and Alijah Martin are elite sharpshooting ballhandlers who can make plays from anywhere and create offense, while Will Richard is a perfect off-ball complement to them both. They go four deep at forward and center, and share the ball incredibly well. The defense is just as scary as the offense, and is capable of locking down even the most elite teams in the field.

The problem? Florida has a habit of getting off to slow starts and having to claw their way back. They've had to fight back from multiple double-digit deficits this season, and while the issue hasn't reared it's head in the Tournament yet, it's always a possibility.

That could be a problem against a Maryland team who has maybe their most talented team since the Juan Dixon-Lonnie Baxter 2001-02 national championship team. The Crab Five are led by forward Derik Queen, a dominant force in the post who carried the Terrapins past a punchy Colorado State team in the second round. Queen and fellow big man Julian Reese create matchup nightmares, while a trio of sharpshooting guards in Ja'Kobi Gillespie, Rodney Rice, and Selton Miguel can knock down shots from anywhere.

The Terps' big weakness is depth. Get past that incredible starting five and things get shaky for Maryland FAST. They're good at staying out of foul trouble, but all it takes is one bad game from Queen or Reese and this could get messy.

Pick: Maryland. The Terps are one of the few teams who can match the Gators bucket for bucket, and as long as Queen and company stay out of foul trouble, the Crab Five are a Final Four-caliber team.

(3) Texas Tech vs. (10) Arkansas: The Texas Tech Red Raiders are a much improved team in Grant McCasland's second season. Led by big man JT Toppin, the Red Raiders play inside out basketball, using slick passing guard Elijah Hawkins to facilitate things. Outside of Toppin, Texas Tech loves to shoot the three, and Chance McMillan hits them at a 43.4 percent rate.

The problem for the Red Raiders comes if Toppin gets in foul trouble. They lack depth behind him, and without him on the floor, their interior defense (already a minor concern) becomes a MAJOR one.

They face an Arkansas team that is a late-stage Calipari special. The Razorbacks have talent and athleticism to spare, and they use it to choke the life out of their opponents. Their defense is fearsome to behold, and rank in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and block percentage. They lock you down and try to take away as much as they can.

But, much like the late-stage Kentucky teams under Calipari, things get messy on the offensive end of the floor. This is not a team who shoots well from the outside by any measure, and they get bogged down a lot trying to generate any kind of consistent offensive production, especially against good offensive teams.

Pick: Texas Tech. Arkansas' offensive foibles are going to cost them in this one, as Texas Tech has the scoring punch to beat them, and the defensive chops to make sure the Razorbacks' paper-fragile offense comes unglued.

(3) Texas Tech vs. (4) Maryland: Maryland has the forwards to counteract Toppin's dominance, and the shooting to hang with the Red Raiders' collective sharpshooting guards. Both of these teams have the talent to make a Final Four run, but the Crab Five have the talent to get there.

MORE TOP STORIES from The Big Lead
SOCCER: The USMNT remains a joke
NFL: Check out the Latest Mock Draft Consensus
CBB/CFB: Viral Georgia sorority girl arrested again
MLB/SPORTS MEDIA: Ron Howard explains how Vin Scully inspired him

Home/CBB