The Big Lead

NCAA Tournament expansion talks run the risk of killing the golden goose

By Sam Westmoreland

Feb 5, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; A rack of basketballs with the March Madness logo before that start of the UCLA Bruins - Ohio State Buckeyes game at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images
Feb 5, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; A rack of basketballs with the March Madness logo before that start of the UCLA Bruins - Ohio State Buckeyes game at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images / Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images
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The NCAA has yet to fully finalize plans for expanding the men's and women's basketball tournaments, and a decision on a new format is unlikely in the near future, according to NCAA senior vice president of basketball Dan Gavitt's interview with Matt Norlander of CBS Sports.

Gavitt told Norlander that it's unlikely that an expansion announcement comes this season, or at all in the short term.

"The most important thing to get across," Gavitt said on the Eye on College Basketball podcast, "this is definitely not a fait accompli. The recommendation to not expand the tournaments is absolutely a potential outcome here in the short-term."

"The committees are continuing their ongoing analysis of whether or not to expand the championships, and if so, how to go about doing that," Gavitt said.

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Previously, it had been reported that expansion to either 72 or 76 teams from the current 68-team field was all but a done deal, but Gavitt pushed back on that notion, while also noting that any decision would not be taken lightly.

The NCAA is playing a dangerous game with its tournament expansion talks, and have done the entire time. 68 teams already feels like pushing the boundaries of the number of high-quality teams making the field; think about the number of sub-20 win teams from power five conferences we've seen making the field and leaving the field just as quickly.

If the field is expanded to include more good mid- and low-major teams who lose their conference tournament, that's one thing. You're adding more quality to the field, giving more teams a shot at making noise and making waves. But, what are the chances that those are the teams who will get those extra slots? Slim to none, in all likelihood.

Instead, you'll see the committee shoehorn 19-14 Stanford, 18-13 West Virginia, or 12-loss Arkansas into the field, regardless of what the NCAA's intentions for the field expansion are. Because that's what always happens; the smaller schools keep their slice of the pie, but the big schools get more. And when the higher quality basketball gets harder to find, you run the risk of losing fan interest.

If you want hope that things might not change, put that faith in Gavitt. He has a reputation as a genuine supporter of the sport, someone who has resisted the idea of expansion for years. Even now, it's clear that he's skeptical of the idea that expansion will be beneficial.

"It's not taken in a lighthearted way at all because of the success of the tournaments and how important they are to college basketball overall," Gavitt said. "Expansion, even in a modest level, is complex, more complex than I think than has been recognized and reported, because it is expensive."

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