NFL Playoffs 2025: Previewing Commanders vs. Buccaneers Wild Card matchup

The Washington Commanders emerged very quickly as one of the most fun teams in the NFL this season. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been a revelation, and they've ridden a high-octane offense to the most wins the franchise has had since 1991.

But the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be one of the few teams capable of matching the Commanders' fun quotient this season. With their own high-flying offense led by Baker Mayfield, the chaotic Bucs were a roller coaster this season.

Which Bucs team will show up in this one? Will the Commanders' dream season continue into an extended postseason run? Let's break it down.

Commanders' Offense: Washington's offense thrives because of their run game. Led by Daniels' 891 rushing yards and six touchdowns and Brian Robinson's 799 yards and eight touchdowns, they want to run it down your throat. Change of pace back Austin Ekeler gives the backfield an added weapon in the passing game as well.

The passing game has been good, but not great; they rank in the middle of the pack in passing yards and just inside the top 10 in passing touchdowns. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin has been incredible, and tight end Zach Ertz continues to defy the rules of aging, settling into a role as the reliable mid-range passing option and red zone threat. Outside of those two, though, it's a collection of players like Olamide Zaccheaus and Noah Brown, who you wouldn't particularly want to count on in a pinch.

Daniels is the engine that keeps this team running, though; when he's on and moving and making plays, they're incredibly tough to beat.

Commanders' Defense: The Commanders win games by scoring, and the defense's job this season has been to get enough stops to give the offense a chance to win.

They rank firmly middle of the pack in terms of scoring (18th in points allowed) and yards (13th in yards allowed), and don't really generate a ton of turnovers (they have just seven interceptions on the year). They're particularly bad against the run, ranking 30th in yards allowed, likely due to the fact that they have one of the highest blitz rates in all of football. That blitz rate also explains why they rank third in passing yards allowed while also conceding 25 passing touchdowns; the best counter to a blitz is quick, short passes that tend not to generate a ton of big plays.

Washington's defense isn't bad, but they're not exactly good, either. More good enough to get the job done most of the time.

Path to Victory: Get the offense going quickly; Daniels needs to get cooking and the offense has to put up points, because it doesn't seem likely that the defense is going to slow Tampa Bay down all that much. If the offense is clicking and the defense gets a couple stops, that could be all it takes here.

Buccaneers' Offense: Tampa Bay is one of the most chaotic teams in all of football, and nowhere is that more evident than their offense. They have a high-octane, high-tempo style that puts up points in bunches, ranking third in total yards and fourth in points on the year. Baker Mayfield has been the manic maestro of this chaotic symphony, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns on the year.

The wide receiver corps is deep and solid; Mike Evans put up yet another 1,000 yard season, while Jalen McMillan emerged as a lethal deep threat. Losing Chris Godwin in Week 7 put a damper on things a bit, but Mayfield responded by spreading the ball around to a variety of sources; this team shares the love and it shows in their stats.

Likewise, the run game has been excellent; Bucky Irving and Rachaad White combined for over 1,700 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Mayfield ran for 378 yards and three more scores.

So, where does the chaos come in? That would be the 16 interceptions Mayfield threw this season; when he's got the ball, more often than not something is going to happen. Will that something be good, or bad? Who can say? Certainly not him, so how can I be expected to predict such things?

Buccaneers' Defense: Speaking of chaotic, we have Tampa's defense. They are the most middling of all middling defenses, ranking 16th in points allowed and 18th in yards allowed on the year. The run defense is absolutely their strength; they rank fourth in rushing yards allowed and 14th in rushing touchdowns allowed on the season.

It's a good thing the run defense is solid, because the pass defense is absolutely not at all solid, ranking 29th in yards allowed, and coughing up 27 passing touchdowns on the year. They only have seven interceptions, so they're not really forcing turnovers, either.

What they do well is get after the passer. This is an aggressive defense, ranking sixth in the NFL in sacks, thanks to the third-highest blitz percentage in the league. They're coming after you, and you'd better be ready for it. Of course, that blitz rate is likely also why they rank so high up the list in yards after the catch conceded (28th); when you have so many people rushing the quarterback, there's lots of space to run free when the pass gets completed.

In other words, strap in for a shootout.

Path to Victory: Try and contain the Commanders run game. Avoid turning the ball over, and hope that the good Baker shows up this week, as opposed to the 250 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 picks Baker that occasionally likes to come and play. Turn this into a shootout and let your offense cook.

The Verdict: This might be the toughest matchup to predict in this postseason because of how volatile these two teams are. Every possible outcome is on the table and has a legitimate chance of happening. I expect points galore, but ultimately, the fact that this is not a particularly ball hawk-ish secondary for Washington gives Tampa Bay a slight edge in what figures to be the most fun game of the weekend.

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